The peace in Kashmir remains fragile, precariously poised between fleeting calm and the constant threat of disruption. This fragility stems from a complex mix of persistent cross border militancy by Pakistan, unresolved geopolitical tensions, simmering internal discontent and sporadic high casualty attacks on civilians and security forces by the Pakistani trained militants.
For the Government of India, the post-2019 years following the abrogation of Article 370 offered a rare window of opportunity. Confidence Building Measures (CBMs), increased developmental projects in Jammu and Kashmir and greater outreach created some form of connect with the people. Yet, the foundations remain unstable, vulnerable to both external pressures and internal fractures. To understand Kashmir’s fragile peace, one must situate it within the twin contexts of India-Pakistan rivalry and the valley’s long standing socio-political disillusionment.
One of the foremost destabilizing factors in Kashmir is the persistent presence of cross border militancy. Despite India’s extensive counterinsurgency operations and the strengthening of border infrastructure along the Line of Control, infiltration attempts from Pakistan have not ceased. The Pahalgam attack in which Pakistani trained terrorists ambushed an open green lush Baisaran valley where 27 innocents were killed ruthlessly is a stark reminder of this enduring threat.
Reports and publications from the International Crisis Group point out that the groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed long nurtured within Pakistan’s security and political establishment remains active till today even after the Operation Sindoor. While the intensity of insurgency has fluctuated, Pakistan’s use of non state actors as strategic assets continues to shape the dynamics of militancy in Kashmir. The ability of these groups to regroup, reconnaissance, adapt and execute high profile attacks underscores the resilience of the terrorist infrastructure across the border and the assets working for them here on our land.
Despite developmental gains and reduced street unrest since 2019, Kashmir’s stability remains precarious. Militancy, governance failures and Pakistan’s proxy strategy ensure that peace in the valley is never more than a fragile.
Even though overall violence levels are significantly lower than the 1990s or 2010 or even 2016 peak, the occasional spectacular attacks like the pahalgam attack serve multiple purposes. They undermine India’s claim of restoring normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir, erode public confidence in security mechanisms and remind the local population of the unresolved political question. In essence, every militant strike is not just a military or terrorist operation but a stern and ruthless message to our political corridors and the population of our country.
Kashmir has always been the central theatre of India Pakistan rivalry. Kashmir is the lab od terrorism experiments for the Pakistani Army and establishment. While overt wars may have ceased, the region remains deeply influenced by the conflict between the two nuclear armed neighbors. After massive strikes by Indian forces on the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan, Jammu and Kashmir and other border areas of our country were on tenterhooks when Pakistan started retaliation. Geopolitical tensions flare up each time there is a major incident in the valley, as seen after the Pulwama attack in 2019 and the Balakot airstrikes that followed. The fragile ceasefire agreement of February 2021, though still technically in place, remains under strain due to occasional violations and the lack of sustained political maturity from the Pakistani side.
Pakistan’s strategy on Kashmir oscillates between internationalizing the issue through diplomatic campaigns, annual UN General Assembly theatrics and maintaining a low level insurgency to keep the valley unsettled. This dual track approach ensures that even when New Delhi makes developmental strides in Kashmir, Pakistan can quickly undercut the narrative by leveraging its militant proxies.
Furthermore, the China factor complicates matters. With the standoff in Ladakh since 2020, India faces a two front challenge. Pakistan’s alignment with Beijing provides Islamabad with greater confidence, reinforcing its willingness to continue supporting militancy in Kashmir. Recently, the meeting between the Indian Prime Minister and his Chinese counterpart indicated subtle shifts in regional diplomacy, yet these engagements must be seen against a backdrop where the United States appears to be tilting strategically towards Pakistan. This changing order where global alignments are being recalibrated adds another layer of complexity to India’s security calculus in Kashmir, demanding vigilance, adaptability and assertive diplomacy to safeguard national interests.
While external factors are significant, the internal political discontent in Kashmir remains equally destabilizing. After 2024 elections in Jammu and Kashmir, there is a massive disillusionment among the populace as the elected government and nominated LG are more into the fighting turf with each other and the common issues of people are not being addressed. Amid this infighting, the bureaucrats are enjoying leverage and are getting uncontrollable. At present, they are having the lasting laugh with daily reports of corruption and opaqueness.
The CBMs undertaken by the Government of India including economic packages, increased security employment opportunities and outreach through cultural and sports initiatives initially generated cautious optimism. But the lack of sustained political representativeness by the both elected government and LG office has prevented these measures from translating into long term trust building.
The sporadic nature of militant violence makes peace in Kashmir even more fragile. A single attack such as the targeted killings of migrant workers, tourists or soldiers can undo months of stability. These attacks are not just tactical strikes but are designed to generate fear, disrupt normalcy and deepen communal divides.
The Newlines Institute analysis highlights that the insurgency since 2019 has become more localized in some respects, with smaller groups and self-radicalized individuals carrying out attacks with the support of trained Pakistani militants. This creates a diffused threat environment that is harder for security forces to anticipate. Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to provide training, logistics and ideological support, ensuring that militancy retains both local and cross border dimensions to suit them in their narrative.
Such attacks also have a ripple effect on tourism and investment, sectors that the government has heavily promoted to project normalcy in Kashmir. Each incident reinforces the perception of insecurity, making economic progress vulnerable to reversals as has been done after the Pahalgam attack where the footfall of tourists wither completely and all the stakeholders associated with tourism are facing mounting losses at present.
It is important to acknowledge the progress achieved in the immediate aftermath of 2019. The government’s CBMs ranging from employment drives, women empowerment schemes, infrastructural projects, to greater integration of Kashmir with national policies did foster some degree of connection with the population. There was a visible decline in stone pelting incidents and everyday life in many parts of the valley became less disrupted by shutdowns and strikes.
The current situation in Kashmir can be described as a delicate balancing act. On the surface, indicators such as infrastructural growth and reduced protests suggest progress. Yet beneath this veneer lies a volatile continued cross border militancy.
The analysis by Beyond Intractability underscores that peace building in Kashmir cannot be reduced to a security centric approach. Military strategies may contain violence but they cannot resolve grievances. A sustainable peace requires a multipronged strategy, one that addresses security threats, fosters inclusive governance and promotes socio-economic development.
Kashmir’s peace is fragile, vulnerable to disruption by both external and internal forces. While India has achieved significant progress since 2019, particularly through CBMs and development projects, the valley remains highly susceptible to the twin threats of militancy and political alienation. Each militant attack, each geopolitical flare up with Pakistan, serves as a reminder of how precarious the situation is.
Ultimately, the challenge before New Delhi is to ensure that the fragile calm does not collapse into chaos. This requires a blend of security, diplomacy and above all authentic democratic accommodation. Peace in Kashmir cannot be secured by force alone; it must be nurtured through trust, dialogue and inclusion. Until then, the peace will remain fragile, a peace that exists today but could unravel tomorrow.
