BASHIR ASSAD
THE recent terrorist attack in Poonch District South of Pirpanjal in Jammu and Kashmir in which five Army jawans were killed, needs an honest analysis as it could have greater strategic implications.
It is amusing to see strategic and defence experts linking the incident with the economic and political instability within Pakistan. The Indian defence analysts and strategic experts make beleaguered Pakistan government’s statement to the Supreme Court of Pakistan that the country faces a threat from the “ill-designs of the Indian spy agency” and anticipates “even an all-out war” with the neighbouring country, as the basis for such presumptions. However, the analysis is not convincing at all.
Lt. General Atta Hasnain who has served in Kashmir for so many years in various capacities, in his analysis of the April 20, 2023 terrorist attack on an Army vehicle in Bhimbar Gali in Poonch in which five jawans were killed, attributed the attack to the economic and political instability in Pakistan. The Army officers currently serving in Jammu and Kashmir seem to be greatly influenced by Hasnain’s analysis. During my interactions with the Army hierarchy from Srinagar to Delhi, this particular thought process seems dominating the mind space.
However, the strategic significance of terror activities in Poonch and Rajouri districts of Jammu region or for that matter, resurgence of terrorist related incidents in Kashmir after a brief lull, is beyond Pakistan’s internal problems.
When we try to attribute the escalation in terrorism related incidents in Jammu and Kashmir to the internal economic and political uncertainty of Pakistan, we are actually reducing the Pakistan’s state policy to the incidental one. It is really amusing to see our defence experts plummeting Pakistan’s consistent state policy of terrorism to the one influenced or driven by certain kind of compulsions. Pakistan’s state policy has not born out of compulsions. It is a meticulously conceived policy renewed occasionally but never revisited.
From day one, after the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, I have been consistently arguing that Pakistan would never abandon its state policy of exporting terrorism to Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan suspends the operation (sending terrorists) under compulsion. This we need to understand. The economic instability and political upheaval forced Pakistan to suspend the terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir for the time being. And relating the spurt in terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir during the year 2023, particularly in Poonch and Rajouri districts, with Pakistan’s internal situation, is erroneous. By doing so, you are unwittingly projecting Pakistan’s notorious spy agency ISI as just an arm of the Pakistani political establishment. ISI is not a spy agency over which the political government exercises any amount of control. Rather, the ISI exercises control over the political class.
We are witnessing very complex geo-political realities globally. Changing norms and the rules of sovereignty in international relations, for all practical purposes, makes the nation states less accountable and answerable to the international forums and organisations. There is a strange trend of withdrawal from international covenants and commitments. Nation states, one after another, tend to withdraw from the commitments in practice. Theoretically, however, the organisations are intact but are perceived as toothless bodies given the tendency of the nation states not showing any regard to the organisational commitments. Foreign policies, international relations, international and comparative political economy, security policies, territorial disputes, border disputes between the nation-states no longer mobilise the international players; rather the multipolar world order has created more problems than resolving them. It would be safe to argue that we are witnessing a decentralised world-order. Internal covenants are honoured more in breach than observance.
That is precisely why we witness a surge in violent thought processes because the societies, particularly with exclusivist tendencies, are fully exploiting the ‘disordered’ world order where no one is answerable to anyone. That is precisely why the Pakistani state has renewed its policy of exporting terrorism beyond its borders. Of course, it is taking calculated risks, given the kind of distress that country is witnessing. However, at the same time, Pakistan’s ISI seems convinced that it could not be held accountable for terror-oriented activities in the present world disorder. Threatening sovereignty and integrity of nation-states is the new norm and the world powers don’t object to it. Rather they seem to engineer such clashes for economic benefits. And it seems, the ISI, since the last couple of years, has been analysing the disorder methodically and has prepared a blue-print to inflict its immediate neighbour.
Secondly, there are strong military ties between China and Pakistan. This alliance between two neighbouring East-South Asian nations is significant geopolitically. The strong military ties primarily aim to counter regional Indian and American influence. The two countries support each other on issues of core interests and major concerns. The Pakistani side firmly adheres to the one-China policy. China supports Pakistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, security, and promotes its social-economic development.
The US, on the other hand, does not want to have those kind of relations with India. It, as we have been watching, has no consistency as for aligning with India is concerned.
So, there are many factors which suggest that Pakistan would see complete revival of terror infrastructure in the coming months.
I tend to agree with Hasnain’s analysis on two points. One, it would be naïve to believe that we have achieved complete normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir post abrogation of Article 370. Yes, the administration has dismantled the ecosystem significantly but the threat is looming large because under the given circumstances, Pakistan does not need a local support system. Earlier it was like walking on a tight rope for Pakistan in case India would produce evidence of its involvement in terrorism in Kashmir or elsewhere in the country. Under the given geo-political arrangement, Pakistan seems a little relieved on that account. There is a shift in its execution mechanism. Pakistan would now, as is evident from Poonch attack, use the highly trained and experienced terrorists to create disturbances in Jammu and Kashmir without the fear of accountability to the international organisations and watchdogs.
As for consolidation in South of Pirpanjal, the defence experts again have a flawed understanding. The terrorist consolidation in the area is not entirely because the Army and paramilitary troops reduced their footprints in the region. First, we need to understand that terrorists need visibility of their targets. More visibility attracts more strike rate. However, on one account I may tend to agree that terrorists, as was evident, had been asked to go slow for the time being. And maybe, the high vigil might have inflicted casualties on the hiding terrorists.
As for the public opinion, it has no impact on the state policy in Pakistan. The system in Pakistan is manipulative and ruthless and the societal makeup is no less coercive. Lawlessness is not a social problem in Pakistan. It is a social norm. Violence has been glorified in the Pakistani society for decades. Violence, as such, defines the society. It would be some time before the people finally realise the benefits of living peacefully. Saying that the Pakistani society is looking towards India, would be premature. That thought process is still in its infancy, confined to some progressive thinkers. As of now, the Pakistani establishment has no pressure from the civil society on revisiting terrorism as a state policy.
