BASHIR ASSAD
Driven by the strategy of depleting the morale of Indian security forces by attacking isolated security installations in mountainous terrains south of Pir Panjal, terrorist activities in the Himalayan region of Jammu and Kashmir have witnessed a surge in the last couple of months. The escalation in deadly attacks on security forces in Jammu region resulting in fatal casualties seems to be part of a bigger game plan.
The escalation can be read as a presage of a long-term operational focus of the enemy forces on stepping up plots in Kashmir valley. Some strategic experts have opined that terrorists have made south of Pir Panjal the theatre of violence because terrorism has been wiped out from Kashmir valley. This deceptive analysis could be self-defeating.
Official figures suggest that there are more than 100 foreign terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. Around 60 among them are roaming in the mountainous Pir Panjal region. Where are the remaining 40 placed? Are they in Kashmir valley, keeping a low-profile for strategic reasons?
The theatre of violence, no doubt, has been shifted to the Jammu region for the time being. This is a strategic move of the enemy forces. The intention is clear – to exhaust the resources of the security agencies by taking advantage of deep dense forests and rigs of Pir Panjal. The effort is also to engage the security forces in calibrated attacks, necessitating redeployment.
Shifting the theatre of violence to Jammu region can have political and diplomatic implications. It is being executed to shift the attention of defence and strategic planners to the Jammu region to make tactical gains in Kashmir
The move can have political and diplomatic implications. It is essentially crafted to shift the attention of defence and strategic planners to the Jammu region to make tactical gains in Kashmir.
The Challenging Jammu Terrain
The terrain in Jammu is significantly more rugged and challenging compared to Kashmir. Kashmir is an intermontane region with large plateaus and deep, narrow valleys. As compared to the south of Pir Panjal, the terrain is relatively easy.
Hence, in Kashmir, if there’s information about militant presence, soldiers can respond quickly. However, in areas like Rajouri, Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar, and other mountainous regions of Chenab and Pir Panjal, the terrain is so difficult that it can take hours to reach the location. Once the security apparatus is completely engaged in Jammu region, terrorists may attempt to catch the forces off guard in Kashmir valley.
Such a plot will likely be constrained in the immediate term due to heavy deployment and generally enhanced security vigilance in Kashmir valley. Isolated shooting incidents against security forces in the valley cannot be ruled out. The terror forces may work against the assessment of some strategic thinkers that “Kashmir terrorism has lost its intensity”.
Sleeper Terror Cells
Deliberate Reinforcement of Youth Alienation
For more than a year, there have been reports of active recruitment of local youths to sleeper cells across Kashmir.
Mobilization of a section of youths for terror activities is particularly expected in south Kashmir hotspots such as Pulwama, Anantnag, and Shopian and Kulgam. North Kashmir proved to be equally vulnerable. In April, a terror module was busted in Baramulla, wherein three teenagers had joined a terror group.
The terror handlers are tapping into discontent among some sections of youths at this critical juncture.
The perception of alienation has somehow reinforced among certain sections of youth, making them more vulnerable for recruitment. The twin encounters in Kulgam district recently in which six local militants were killed reflects on this vulnerability. The terror forces deliberately build contesting perceptions of Kashmir society and the Indian state. These provide the foundation for the contrasting political narratives.
Behind the scenes and operating silently, terror players are busy deepening their networks across Jammu and Kashmir. Conflicting political beliefs are deliberately engendered among the people, and these remain at the core of the volatile security scenario. Pakistan is fishing in the troubled waters. Security measures admittedly play an important role. Equally, policy planners need to think beyond military tactics.
Why Jammu Is Hotting Up
Shifting of war theatre to Jammu region should be taken as an incubation period for intensified terrorism in Kashmir. Localized escalations can be expected along the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB), as has been witnessed for a year now.
The current phase of Kashmir terrorism is driven by ideological radicalism
More lethal attacks from terrorists hiding in deep forests are foreseeable. The deadly Kathua attack killing six army personnel followed by an attack on an out of bound police post in Udhampur district sufficiently imply multiple objectives of the terror forces.
a) There are renewed efforts to force heavy deployment in Pir Panjal forests and drain the human and economic resources of the Indian army
b) The terror players seek to step up the operational challenges for the security forces
c) Mobilization of terror players in Kashmir region is being carried out in a calibrated manner.
Such a strategy may aid infiltration attempts into Indian territory by terror groups, especially in areas such as Gurez sector in Bandipora, Machil sector in Kupwara, and Uri sector in Baramulla. The occasional ceasefire violations are likely to be sustained, particularly in areas south of the Pir Panjal range, including the Krishna Ghati sector in Poonch.
This will likely be motivated by a desire to inflict casualties on Indian forces through small-sized tactical escalations, while also providing cover fire for infiltrating militants. Similar violations are also likely at locations situated north of the Pir Panjal including Baramulla. Escalations will likely be defined by small-arms and mortar fire, as well as the occasional use of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and artillery guns.
It appears that the strategy of the terror players has been meticulously devised taking into account the possible response of the Indian armed forces. There could be highs and lows depending upon the cascading implications of response from the Indian security apparatus. But one thing is for sure – terrorism is going to pose greater, rather unprecedented challenges to the security apparatus in the coming weeks.
Darker Colours Ahead
The renewed phase of militancy is totally different and more lethal from the earlier phases. The current phase of Kashmir terrorism is driven by ideological radicalism. It receives further impetus from the withdrawal of the international community from the commitments for respecting territorial integrity and upholding sovereignty of nation states.
The institutions of international watchdogs have been rendered redundant. Pakistan is taking advantage of disengagement of nation states from global commitments.
Earlier, the Indian state would push Pakistan to diplomatic margins by producing evidence of its involvement in Kashmir terrorism. This is less likely today because the international community seems to be less keen on holding up its responsibilities and agreements. Pakistan seems to have no fears of reprisal or reprimand from major world bodies or economic and military powers, given that China is its ‘iron brother’ and a strategic ally against India.
Current Phase Of Terrorism – Ideologically Hardcore, Militarily Lethal
Coming back to the current phase of terrorism, it is ideologically hardcore and militarily lethal. It has spread its tentacles across the Jammu region. The deep dense forests and high mountain rigs are their ideal terrain for engaging the security forces for longer periods and inflicting heavy casualties.
The escalation is likely to be sustained till the end of 2024. The game plan of the terror players seems to be that by that time, the terrorist substructure would be revived in Kashmir – therefore expanding the theatre across the regions.
For a calibrated response, there has to be a plan in place not based on response to the unfolding events, but one that takes into account the larger picture. It is equally important to move beyond the political rhetoric and military response as envisaged. Terrorism cannot be wiped out by military measures alone. Terrorism sustains on public perception – definitely so in the Kashmir context.
The phrase “winning the hearts and minds of people” has been politicized. We need to further strengthen the confidence of the people in the state and its structures. We need to have a carrot and stick approach in place. It’s euphemistic to say it, but yes. Carrots win hearts.
Stoking The Fires
The narrative of discrimination, division and alienation is being rebuilt in a calibrated manner across Jammu and Kashmir.
Perceived misgivings are deliberately being stoked by terror players. These activities are now carrying on the sly because of sustained pressure from the state. They have the potential to spur a fresh spiral of long-drawn insurgency, which could drag the security forces into a bloody battle. This new phase of terrorism could have more incendiary potential than ever before, given the fact that foreign terrorists are rigorously trained and ideologically lethal. This was not the case with the earlier phases of Kashmir terrorism.
The improved law and order situation has certainly helped in changing the outlook of the larger majority and has pushed the fringe of trouble mongers to the margins. The connect between the security agencies, particularly the Indian army and the public, is thriving. There is a definite sense of security in the minds of the people.
The strident political discourse does not allow this sense of security to set in completely. Pervasive fears and suspicions among people are an outcome of the hardened political discourse on Kashmir.
It is in this context that escalation in terrorism-related incidents cannot be ruled out. Mobilization of a section of youths along radical lines by terror handlers is a real threat.
