MIAN TUFAIL
The Baramulla district of Jammu and Kashmir, often seen as a political bellwether for the region, stands at the heart of a fascinating electoral contest in the ongoing Assembly elections. Comprising seven assembly constituencies – Sopore, Rafiabad, Uri, Baramulla, Gulmarg, Wagoora-Kreeri, and Pattan – the district is witnessing a highly competitive and unique political maneuvering this election season. With a large number of candidates vying for power, a diverse range of issues and deep-rooted family rivalries, the Baramulla Assembly elections are set to leave a significant mark on the political trajectory of Jammu and Kashmir.
The Political Importance of Baramulla
Baramulla district holds immense political significance for the entire Jammu and Kashmir region, not only because of its strategic location but also due to its diverse demographic and political makeup. From the militancy-affected Sopore, often seen as a political tinderbox, to the bordering Uri constituency, which has its own unique set of challenges, Baramulla’s seven assembly constituencies present a benchmark of Jammu and Kashmir’s political dynamics.
Baramulla’s seven assembly constituencies present a benchmark of Jammu and Kashmir’s political dynamics
In these elections, the spotlight on Baramulla is brighter than ever, with each constituency representing a key battleground, and the outcomes here are likely to have a broader impact on regional politics.
The Family Feud
The Baramulla constituency stands out in these elections due to an intra-family battle that is generating significant attention. Two key members of the prominent Beigh family are squaring off against each other, making this constituency a hotspot of political intrigue.
Javid Hassan Beigh, a candidate from the National Conference (NC), is running against his uncle, Muzaffar Hussain Beigh, who is contesting as an independent. This intra-family contest reflects the shifting allegiances within the Beigh family and by extension within the broader political landscape of Baramulla. Muzaffar Beigh, one of the founding members of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999, has had a tumultuous political career particularly following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019.
Despite his apparent disengagement from active politics following the abrogation Muzaffar Beigh made a notable appearance earlier this year, joining the PDP leadership in paying tribute to Mufti Mohammad Sayeed on his death anniversary. This reappearance raised questions about Beigh’s political intentions, as he claimed never to have left the PDP. However, his current independent candidacy indicates a departure from his party roots contributing to the complexity of the Baramulla race.
Javid Hassan Beigh, on the other hand, represents a new generation within the National Conference. His candidacy signals NC’s intention to bring fresh faces into their fold while capitalizing on the family’s political legacy in the region. The nephew-uncle rivalry has added a personal dimension to this contest where local dynamics, including family loyalties and historical alliances will play a decisive role.
Sopore
Ghulam Rasool Kar’s Legacy and Afzal Guru’s Brother Surprise
Sopore, often referred to as the “Apple Town” due to its vast apple orchards is a region marred by militancy and political unrest. This constituency is home to a politically charged contest that ties into Afzal Guru, the Parliament attack convict who was hanged in 2013. His brother, Ejaz Guru, is one of the key candidates in this election contesting against Irshad Rasool Kar of the National Conference.
Ejaz Guru has made it clear that he is running on a platform that seeks to distance himself from his brother’s ideology stating that he wants to “clean the family’s image.” His bid to redefine the Guru family’s political presence in Sopore adds an interesting layer to the contest.
However, Sopore remains a stronghold for Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), which has significant sway over the constituency. After the forging of alliances, JeI votes may provide a boost to Engineer Rashid’s party, particularly its candidate Advocate Mursaleen. While Mursaleen is gaining traction, the contest still revolves around traditional political parties like the NC. Sopore’s election results will be closely watched and the legacy of father of Irshad Kar, Ghulam Rasool Kar is intact in the minds of electorate.
Irshad Kar is consolidating votes on the name of his party NC and the contribution of his father. His sister Musarat Rasool Kar was the chairperson of Sopore Municipal Council and has attained huge respect among the people by his pro-people policies and decisions. Musarat has threw her weight behind his brother Irshad Kar.
Wagoora-Kreeri
A Triangular Contest of Significance
The Wagoora-Kreeri constituency is embroiled in a three-way political contest that exemplifies the changing dynamics of Baramulla’s politics. Safina Beigh, wife of Muzaffar Beigh, is contesting as an independent candidate, positioning herself against the NC-Congress alliance candidate Irfan Hafeez Lone and Basharat Bukhari of the PDP.
Safina Beigh’s candidacy has drawn significant attention especially given her close ties to political power as the wife of one of Baramulla’s most prominent politicians. She currently serves as the DDC Chairperson of Baramulla, a position she holds with the backing of the People’s Conference led by Sajad Lone. Safina’s political ambitions reflect the ongoing influence of the Beigh family, even as her husband steps away from traditional party structures.
Irfan Hafeez Lone, an advocate by profession has a reputation for being a staunch defender of Kashmiri rights, particularly for his role in contesting the abrogation of Article 370 in the Supreme Court. His campaign has focused on grassroots engagement, making him a formidable candidate with a growing base of support.
On the other hand, Basharat Bukhari’s political career has been characterized by party-switching. After leaving the PDP in 2020 to join the National Conference, Bukhari briefly aligned himself with the People’s Conference before rejoining the PDP ahead of these elections. His repeated shifts between parties have complicated his standing in the constituency but his experience in governance may yet work to his advantage.
The Wagoora-Kreeri contest is likely to be one of the most intense, as each candidate brings unique strengths to the table with local alliances and family networks playing crucial roles.
Rafiabad
The Fight Across Age Groups
Rafiabad’s contest is a battle between experience and youthful ambition. The primary candidates are Javed Ahmad Dar of the NC, Yawar Dilawar Mir of the Apni Party, and Abdul Gani Vakil of the People’s Conference.
Javed Ahmad Dar, a seasoned politician and former Minister of State for Health, is looking to leverage his experience and long-standing connections within the constituency. However, the real challenge comes from Yawar Dilawar Mir, who stunned political observers by defeating the old guard in the 2014 elections. Representing a younger, more dynamic generation of politicians, Yawar’s campaign has focused appealing to younger voters and addressing their issues.
Abdul Gani Vakil, despite being a veteran and former Congress minister, has faced repeated electoral defeats. His current candidacy under the banner of the People’s Conference represents his continued determination to break through in Rafiabad, although he remains an underdog in this triangular contest.
Pattan
Shia Vote Is The Key Factor
Pattan constituency, with its sizable Shia population, has long been a stronghold for the Ansari family. Imran Reza Ansari, the candidate from the People’s Conference, is seeking to extend his family’s dominance, having represented the seat since 2008. His father, before him, held the seat for several terms, making the Ansaris synonymous with Pattan’s political landscape.
However, this time around, the contest is far from a foregone conclusion. The National Conference is mounting a serious challenge, with its candidate Reyaz Bedar hoping to capitalize on the influence of prominent Shia cleric Aga Syed Ruhullah to eat into Ansari’s vote bank. The Shia vote, therefore, will be the determining factor in Pattan, as both sides seek to consolidate their support in this demographically crucial constituency.
Uri
Political Dynasts and Independent Aspirants
The Uri constituency, located on the Line of Control, has always been geopolitically sensitive and its political contests are no less intense. In this election, the contest is primarily between Dr. Sajad Uri of the NC and Taj Mohiuddin, an independent candidate.
Dr. Sajad Uri, son of NC stalwart Shafi Uri, is contesting on the back of a political legacy that has long held sway in the region. His family’s historical connection to the NC gives him a substantial advantage but Taj Mohiuddin’s independent run complicates the equation.
Taj Mohiuddin, a former Congress minister, initially joined the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) led by Ghulam Nabi Azad. However, his decision to leave DPAP and contest as an independent has raised eyebrows, particularly since he was seen as a key figure within Azad’s fold. Uri’s political landscape, therefore, becomes a battle of legacies versus independence.
Gulmarg
Restoring NC’s Bastion
The Gulmarg constituency, traditionally an NC stronghold has witnessed significant political shifts over the years. Farooq Ahmad Shah, a retired bureaucrat running on the NC ticket is looking to restore the party’s dominance after it lost the seat to Ghulam Hassan Mir during the 2008–2014 period.
Ghulam Hassan Mir, a veteran politician and former minister, is now contesting as Apni Part’s candidate and he remains a strong contender. His political acumen and deep-rooted connections within the constituency make him a formidable challenge for Shah. But now equation has changed after Apni Party started to work as proxy and Shah has find easy ground to sway his voters.
The Gulmarg contest is, therefore, a clash between tradition and personal influence, with the electorate torn between the NC’s historical appeal and Mir’s individual popularity.
The Broader Implications for Jammu and Kashmir Politics
The outcomes of the Baramulla Assembly elections will provide critical insights into the future of Jammu and Kashmir’s politics. Baramulla’s contests also shed light on the changing political landscape post-Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. Whether it is the reassertion of traditional political forces like the National Conference, the rise of independents or the influence of smaller regional parties, the electoral verdict in Baramulla will likely reverberate across the region and set the tone for future political engagements.
Assembly Election 2024 is not merely about local governance but also about shaping the broader political narrative of Jammu and Kashmir in the years to come
The diverse and dynamic nature of Baramulla’s political contests, combined with its symbolic significance makes it a focal point in the 2024 Assembly elections. As the candidates battle it out in these seven constituencies, the election is not merely about local governance but also about shaping the broader political narrative of Jammu and Kashmir in the years to come.
