BASHIR ASSAD
The 2024 elections to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly have been the most stimulating elections in the electoral history of the erstwhile state, now Union Territory.
As the first phase has peacefully commenced for 24 seats, unprecedented and unparalleled events are shaping which could certainly have a lasting impact on the electoral future of this sensitive and volatile region. This is the first election in the history of Jammu and Kashmir where the popularity of the parties and the clout of the leadership is at its nadir.
Backlash By Voters
We are witnessing purely a candidate-based election where the leadership or the party have the least influence over the electorate. There is deep cynicism among the people after watching the shenanigans of Kashmir’s traditionally powerful parties and their leadership. The constant accusations of corruption, malpractices and nepotism and the propensity to ignore the voters has potentially contributed to a backlash by the electorate. The result is the disenchantment among the voters across regions and religions.
The mounting disillusionment with the political parties and their leadership has finally forced the voters to think locally. The ongoing election in Jammu and Kashmir is primarily about the candidate, and his or her individual ability to connect with the voters.
The traditional leadership, whether Dr. Farooq Abdullah and his son Omar Abdullah of National Conference or Mehbooba Mufti of Peoples Democratic party are creating a lot of noise in their media statements, but they are missing in action. The traditional elitist leadership seems to be confined to their own garrisons.
Rather late, Mehbooba realised the potential wave against her daughter Iltija Mufti, who is making her electoral debut from the family’s home constituency Bijbehara in South Kashmir. Consequently, Mehbooba toured the length and breadth of the family’s erstwhile stronghold on September 14 literally with a begging bowl.
Lacklustre Hold Of Political Elites
As both NC and PDP are being widely condemned as not only being unrepresentative but also hijacked by elites and subverting the power of the people, voters appear to be turning away from traditional political parties. The personal clout of the elitist leadership has vanished to unimaginable levels.
Earlier, a nominee of one or the other party would rely on the leadership to fetch votes. Ironically, now the roles have reversed. The leadership is now dependable on the individual ability of the candidate. Late Sheikh Muhammad Abdullah had famously said, “You have to vote even if my nominee is an electric pole”.
Not to be outdone, late Mufti Muhammad Sayed had said, “People in South Kashmir vote for me, not for the candidate. It does not matter who is the candidate – a bull or a buffalo”. This was the level of their confidence. Now times have changed, and the reality is different. Much depends on how able the candidate is, as there are absolutely no takers for the elitist leaders.
Political Dynasts Are Aware Of The Existential Threat
We are witnessing a new phenomenon in Kashmir where the era of people pursuing the political bigwigs is almost over. A trend of the political elites going directly to the people has begun. Though this kind of churning is somehow messy, the fact remains that political parties in Kashmir are facing the greatest challenge – the threat to their existence.
The number of fence sitters in Kashmir seems larger than the number of voters identifying with either NC or PDP
Indeed, a steadily increasing share of voters tends to identify as unaffiliated with either party. The number of fence sitters in Kashmir seems larger than the number of voters identifying with either NC or PDP. The situation on ground viz-a-viz the overwhelming response of the people towards the individuals seen as the fringe in the recent past is an expression of disenchantment and disillusion against the traditional parties and politics.
The Rashid Phenomenon
Riding On Emotional Vulnerability Of Kashmiri Youth
We are aware that individuals like Member Parliament from North Kashmir, Engineer Rashid, are riding on the emotional vulnerability of the youth in Kashmir. The undercurrent of the political anger against the erstwhile ruling elite has shaken the Abdullahs, the Muftis and others of their ilk.
One thing is clear. Kashmir is not going back to the traditional politics of yore. It is immaterial whether Engineer Rashid is able to consolidate the emotional outburst of the youth or not. Kashmir politics is under transition from traditional politics to a more open and direct democratic system.
However, what seems to be dangerous is the policy to allow the propagation of an illegitimate narrative for electoral gains. This may come haunting to the policy planners in due course of time (KC is dealing with this subject separately in the same issue).
Soon after Er. Rashid’s “Kashmir issue” rhetoric, Mehbooba Mufti too started a fresh rant against the Indian state. So now we again have the competitive anti-India narrative blaring from the loudspeakers in Kashmir. It is expected the voices of discord would get louder day by day.
Polarized Campaign In Jammu Is Helping Kashmir’s Political Dynasts
The extremely polarized campaigning by BJP in Jammu region is the only thing which keeps Kashmir’s political elites relevant. The polarization inspires the psyche to greater levels to hold on to the traditional parties.
The more BJP stays firm on political polarization, the more are the chances for the voters to stay attached to the traditional Kashmir-oriented political parties. In such a scenario, every fresh entry into Kashmir politics is being looked upon with suspicion as being planted and projected by the BJP.
A narrative is being built that erosion of traditional elitist political parties is a loss for democracy in general. The argument is that traditional political parties are the core institution of democratic accountability because they offer competing visions for public good. Voters, it is argued, have no idea how complex the state and its institutions are. It is being reinforced that the voters cannot see or foresee the “hydra- headed” state and its intricacies. It is being painstakingly projected that only the traditional political leaders and parties have the expertise to deal with the state.
Simultaneously, we are witnessing that the growing discontent against the political elites shapes an explicit opinion about the traditional political elites being “illegitimate” and exploitative. Dr. Farooq Abdullah is no more as actively campaigning as he had been, essentially because his graph of attracting the crowds has dramatically declined.
Omar Abdullah, on the other hand, is worried about winning at least one of the two constituencies he is contesting from Central Kashmir’s Ganderbal and Budgam segments. It is only sitting Member Parliament from Central Kashmir, Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, who is emerging as the star campaigner for National Conference throughout the region because of his hardline position against the events of August 5, 2019.
Ruhullah, a young Shia leader, is known for his hard anti-BJP stance. He is the only person in the National Conference who enjoys considerable goodwill and influence among the masses after his interventions in the Lok Sabha. Here too, there’s a twist. MP Ruhullah Mehdi is not the leader of the National Conference. Leadership rests with the Abdullahs.
The more BJP stays firm on political polarization, the more are the chances for the voters to stay attached to the traditional Kashmir-oriented political parties
The Prevailing Dilemma
Nobody Has The Answers
As of now the political scenario in Kashmir seems to be chaotic. Nobody either from the traditional elitist political class or from the emerging fiery individuals have the answers to the prevailing dilemma.
Er. Rashid’s growing popularity could be short-lived. Rashid, who spent five years in jail, has no idea about the current dynamics of Kashmir politics. It was clear to a seasoned analyst that on his release from jail on September 11, Rashid started from where he had left five years back, having no idea of what has changed in the last five years.
However, he seems to have dedicated the whole election campaign to the thousands of Kashmiris detained after the abrogation of Article 370 under UAPA, and who are languishing in jails for years “without trials”. This is genuinely an issue close to the heart of everyone in Kashmir. Rashid is doing everything to consolidate his support base by making this issue the central theme of his election campaign. Beyond that, Rashid could not flag the genuine and legitimate concerns. Rashid in other words is a replica of late hawkish separatist leader Sayed Ali Geelani – no answers, only questions.
The kind of political mobilization witnessed currently is an indication that people in Kashmir are experimenting with alternatives to elitist party-driven democracy. It may have limited impact on the outcome of the result, but the public opinion is certainly turning. What seems to be a fringe as of now could be the mainstream in the coming years.
Building Leadership Credentials
It takes years of grassroots activism and contesting elections to build leadership credentials. In electoral democracies, those who desire political power contest election after election, just to increase their support-base among their voters. It takes decades for them to get their own vote share to a certain threshold where they can deliver a multiplier effect to any formation they decide to join. The political freebees, known for shifting their loyalties and flow with the tide, are seldom able to gather mass around them. The freshness and clean-slate images are very prudent for any viable political alternative.
Wild Card Entry
Jamaat e Islami Factors Into J&K Elections
For decades, Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), an Islamist socio-political-religious organisation, rejected India’s rule in Kashmir. JEI boycotted and spearheaded the boycott campaign for three decades, asking voters to boycott elections, arguing that participation would give New Delhi legitimacy over Kashmir.
JEI spawned armed movements that continue to fight for Kashmir’s separation from India. The Jamaat became the fountainhead of the armed rebellion after the most controversial Assembly elections of 1987. Jamaat declared the militant outfit Hizbul Mujahideen the party’s armed wing in 1990. (The Jamaat distanced itself from the hardliners in November 1998.)
Jamaat e Islami delegation comprising four of its senior leaders entered into secret talks with the Government of India after it faced stringent crackdown by the administration and was banned for five years. Now, at least 10 Jamaat-backed candidates are contesting the elections, leading to confusion, hope, anger and speculation bordering on conspiracy theories. Out of 10 seats it contests, Jamaat is giving a close fight only in Kulgam assembly segment of South Kashmir.
Kulgam had been a traditional hot bastion of Jamaat. However, in the 1996 elections the Communist leader Yousuf Tarigami won the seat with the support of the National Conference. Since 1996, Tarigami has represented Kulgam in the Legislative assembly for four consecutive terms. This time Jamaat is giving sleepless nights to Tarigami.
Many believe that Jamaat fighting elections is a win-win situation for both New Delhi and Jamaat
The popular perception is that Jamaat is a proxy of BJP and will go with BJP for government formation. Though there is also an opinion that Jamaat is confused and is fighting a paradox.
Historically Jamaat has always acted as a semi-government organization and has helped the successive regimes both in Srinagar and New Delhi to dilute the mandate of the political opponents. Therefore, it seems a conscious decision of Jamaat to participate in elections.
Many believe that Jamaat fighting elections is a win-win situation for both New Delhi and Jamaat. It is believed that New Delhi shall expose Jamaat and de-legitimise the separatist narrative, while Jamaat shall secure lifting of the ban and revive its organizational structures.
The ongoing elections as such are unique and historic and have the potential to alter the dynamics of political power in Jammu and Kashmir. It is the beginning of the end of elitist politics beyond doubt.
