YAWAR YOUSUF
Jammu and Kashmir UT is gearing up for Assembly elections after a gap of nearly ten years. The Election Commission of India (ECI) took a call to this effect on August 16, announcing that the assembly elections would be held in three phases starting from September 18, and culminating with the final phase to be held on October 1. Results would be declared on October 8, 2024.
Significantly, it is after a long gap of 30 years that elections to the legislative assembly of Jammu and Kashmir will be held in just three phases. Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed long drawn and exhaustive election processes in the last 30 years, spanning over more than five phases.
Moreover, this would also be the first Assembly election after the scrapping of Article 370 in 2019 and bifurcation of the erstwhile state into two union territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. Some salient features of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections 2024 are as follows:
- First elections to be held in absence of potential boycott call from the separatists
- First elections in the last three decades where Jamaat e Islami with fundamentally extreme credentials and pro-Pakistan leanings and linkages would participate in the elections.
- First elections to the UT assembly to be held after scrapping Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and its subsequent bifurcation into two union territories.
- First elections to be held in the shortest span of time in the last three decades.
- First elections to be held under the shadow of gun in Jammu region – owing to the escalation in deadly attacks on army by the hardcore highly equipped terrorists in the mountainous region of Jammu. Kashmir has been relatively calm during this period.
- First elections for an assembly which does not have its erstwhile constitutional, residuary and legislative powers.
Kashmir Central tries to analyse the key stakeholders, the evolving political and security scenario, and the nuanced realities that would certainly influence the upcoming elections. In the backdrop of the first elections to the UT assembly post abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, it is crucial to delve into the intricacies, the limitations and the challenges presenting a complex and sensitive landscape.
Hardened Political Narratives, Polarized Political Discourse
The upcoming elections to Jammu and Kashmir Assembly will be held in the backdrop of abrogation of Article 370 in J&K and the revival of terrorism in Jammu region, which was declared terrorism-free 22 years ago, in 2002. The twin realities stand as a watershed moment, signalling a very complex situation which could certainly have an impact on the region’s socio-political fabric. The hardened political narratives and polarized political discourse could add to the complexities, thereby unleashing a complex interplay of forces with conflicting emotions and intricately woven drawbacks.
The elections to the UT assembly, in a way, could have a cascading impact on the electoral landscape in the region. It is quite evident that the political forces – both regional and national – would resort to emotive political narratives around the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution of India and the events that unfolded down the line since August 5, 2019.
Focus On Emotive Issues
The regional political parties and the right-wing BJP have their individual, distinct audiences in the two regions of Jammu and Kashmir – both very different from each other on various parameters. The political campaign is expected to be extremely polarized, pitching their respective constituencies against each other around emotive issues designed to enthuse and attract the electorate.
Both the regional forces of Kashmir enjoy significant support in sub-regions of Jammu, particularly in Poonch and Rajouri district along the Line of Control and Doda and Kishtwar districts in Chenab sub-region.
The BJP is focused on the Hindu majority districts of Kathua, Udhampur, Reasi, Samba and Jammu. All political parties are conscious of the importance of defining carefully, and segmenting in as real a way as possible, the political discourse to impress the respective audiences. The Kashmir-oriented political parties and the ruling BJP – both are hiding behind the noise around Article 370. As the grievances and unfulfilled aspirations remain a potential challenge to the political parties across the divide, there seems to be classical unanimity in thought processes of the arch-rivals to navigate through the roughness taking refuge in emotive issues.
Report Card Post 2019
Abrogation of Article 370 had remained on the top of the agenda of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for seven decades. The rightists had long argued that this constitutional provision prevented J&K from becoming a fully integrated part of the Indian union, and that it fuelled separatism and stoked terrorism.
The argument put forth was that article 370 and 35A have given nothing but secessionism, terrorism, nepotism and widespread corruption to Jammu Kashmir. In 2019, the Modi government rendered article 370 and 35A infructuous, hence doing away with the special status of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir.
The decision to revoke the unique constitutional provision evoked polarized responses in the Jammu and Kashmir regions. People in the Jammu region celebrated the decision of the Modi government. Contrary to the jubilation in Jammu region, the monumental decision of abrogation of Article 370 was received with cynicism, suspicion and disbelief in Kashmir valley.
Historically, Jammu region has been a strong votary of complete integration of Jammu and Kashmir with the rest of the country. In Kashmir, the mainstream advocated for autonomous character within the Union of India. The separatists fought for separation from India. Both political forces of Kashmir nurtured their respective constituencies. The voices for complete integration with the Indian state were marginalized and crushed.
The Celebrations In Jammu After Abrogation, And Why
Jammu region, which has long supported the BJP’s mission of revoking Article 370, erupted into celebrations following the abrogation of Article 370. More than ideological commitment and its political ramifications, the euphoria in Jammu was a vent against the dominance of Kashmir-centric political discourse of the last seven decades. The abrogation of Article 370 by the Modi government, therefore, meant a step towards correction of the power imbalance between the Jammu and Kashmir regions. The people in Jammu region – irrespective of race, religion and ethnicity – saw their empowerment in the disempowerment of the political elite of Kashmir, if not the fellow citizens in Kashmir.
Conundrum of Terrorism and Article 370
The abrogation of Article 370 finally resulted in altering the political standing of the state with the Indian Union, ending its unique constitutional arrangement within the union. Law-and-order situation has improved phenomenally, as the streets in Kashmir are calm for the first time in the last 35 years. There are no hartals, shutdowns, or stone-pelting demonstrations and hence no casualties.
Terror Threat In Larger Jammu Region
The number of terrorism related incidents have seen a surge in the last two years. The theatre of terrorism is expanding, with hardcore terrorists inflicting a heavy toll on security forces in the difficult terrains of Jammu region. The escalation in terror attacks poses a great challenge to the security forces. The situation is expected to worsen in the coming weeks and months.
A large number of hardcore war-veterans have infiltrated through the international border in Kathua and Samba districts. The infiltration bids from across a long Line of Control (LoC) in Poonch and Rajouri districts is a common practice now.
The alienation and insecurity among sections of youths in Kashmir post abrogation of Article 370 poses challenges to the security of the state. While recruitment in militant ranks has been low, hybrid terrorism has been an issue of concern for the security forces. The perceived disempowerment could be one of the major contributory factors to the growing sense of insecurity among the vulnerable sections of youths in Jammu and Kashmir.
The abrogation of Article 370 was seen as a potential opportunity for integration and development. It has also unleashed a complex interplay of forces with multifaceted implications. The future course of action has ignited conflicting emotions and is intricately woven with both hope and potential drawbacks.
Important To Focus On Management Of Perceptions
What remains the biggest challenge for the Indian state is the management of perceptions. The political forces in the state have completely different sets of audiences, the situation becomes even more complex when the interplay of forces having varied aspirations comes into expression. There is a clash of regional, religious and ethnic identities which has further aggravated in the last few years. Segmentation of society comes with major drawbacks. If the conflict of interest among the sections of society is perceived to be promoted, peace is disturbed.
As the people of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir prepare to articulate their sentiments in the upcoming assembly elections, the narratives are certainly going to be around the political theories that have framed India’s Constitutional trajectory. Notwithstanding the legality and constitutionality of the post 2019 events, the lingering aspirations and unfulfilled promises will certainly influence the voter sentiments.
The fluid security scenario owing to the escalation in terrorism essentially in Jammu region further adds to the already complex situation. The truth is that the majority of the people in both the regions were ready to accept the changing geo-political realities.
Initially there were positive signs for national integration, economic progress and democratic participation. For a couple of years post 2019 events, there was some seriousness in addressing the genuine concerns and real issues. A fair degree of progress was recorded on a host of indexes. But the anti-India forces were equally at work in sabotaging the nationalist narrative. These anti-India forces embedded fears and notions of further marginalisation, insecurity, deepening of undemocratic processes occupied the mind space in Kashmir valley.
Separatist Threat Persists Amid Simmering Discontent
While the abrogation of Article 370 has seemingly shelved separatism, the disaffection among sections of society has not let separatism die down. Though subdued, the separatist threat persists amid simmering discontent. The upcoming elections are fraught with uncertainties. The iron-fisted approach has effectively contained armed militancy and achieved significant success in breaking the backbone of the terror ecosystem.
The government has got rid of the unscrupulous elements who were averse to the peace and peaceful environment in Kashmir. There must be more concerted efforts to take the peaceful majority on board.
Kashmir’s Political Climate Is Undergoing A Metamorphosis
The most encouraging observation is that Kashmir’s political climate is undergoing a metamorphosis. Kashmir was once dominated by calls for self-rule, autonomy and azadi. Leaving these separatist narratives behind, Kashmir has taken a visible turn towards development, economic empowerment and growth.
The political class is yet to navigate the transition. The shift in the narrative is being driven by civil society. The upcoming elections offer an opportunity to address grievances and chart a path towards stability and development. Even though there are lingering grievances and aspirations for self-governance, high voter turnout is expected for the revival of inclusive and participative democratic culture. With cautious optimism and honesty, these elections may usher in a new chapter in Jammu and Kashmir’s complex evolution.
