THE alarm bells have started ringing in Jammu and Kashmir as climate change takes a firm grip on the eco-fragile Himalayan region. The consequences of global warming are now manifesting in ways that were once inconceivable, altering ecosystems, disrupting water availability and impacting livelihoods.
Rising temperatures, erratic precipitation and prolonged dry spells have resulted in a concerning shift in weather patterns, threatening the sustainability of this ecologically sensitive zone. The psyche that we aren’t prone to anything happening in the outside world has started to wither and among the residents. They have finally begun to realise the harsh impacts of climate change on Jammu and Kashmir, especially on the Valley.
- Winter feels summer
The Kashmir Valley, once known for harsh winters and consistent snowfall, is experiencing an unprecedented change in its seasonal patterns. With temperatures soaring above normal levels, the traditional winter chill has all but disappeared, creating a summer-like feel even in peak winter months of the harshest period of Chillai Kalan.
The situation has been exacerbated by a severe rainfall deficit of approximately 80 percent, resulting in rapidly receding water levels in rivers and water bodies. Several natural springs, which have been lifelines for many villages, have dried up completely. The famous Achabal spring in south Kashmir’s Anantnag district, which has historically provided drinking water to a dozen villages, has witnessed an unprecedented drying up for the first time. This alarming event prompted local communities to offer prayers and organise cleaning drives in an attempt to restore the spring’s natural flow. It was only after a brief spell of rain that the spring regained life, emphasising the fragile balance upon which Kashmir’s hydrological systems rest.
Similarly, the renowned Aripal spring turned dry, depriving hundreds of residents of their primary drinking water source. These occurrences underscore the dire consequences of climate change on the region’s natural water resources.
- Impact on rivers and hydropower
The prolonged dry spell has severely affected the Jhelum River, often regarded as the lifeline of Kashmir. Snowmelt contributes nearly 65 percent of the river’s water supply and the decreased snowfall in peak winter months has significantly reduced its flow. The river’s major tributaries are drying up, leading to an overall depletion of the water table across the Valley.
This crisis has had a cascading effect on hydroelectric power generation. Jammu and Kashmir, which boasts an installed hydropower capacity of 3,500 MW, has witnessed a sharp decline in energy output, with production plummeting to just 606 MW. The situation is most evident in the Baglihar Hydropower Project in Ramban district, which, despite its 900 MW installed capacity, is currently generating a mere 150 MW. This 83 percent decline is directly attributable to the reduced water availability caused by insufficient precipitation and climate-induced changes in hydrological cycles.
The climate change in J&K is fast moving towards threatening the region’s water security, agriculture, energy production and the overall environmental health. There is a crying need to act quick and mitigate the crisis.
The crisis has forced the government to rely on expensive power purchases, putting additional financial strain on the exchequer. The diminishing capacity of hydropower plants raises concerns about energy security in the region, further emphasising the need for long-term climate adaptation strategies.
- Causes of climate change in J&K
While climate change is a global phenomenon, its impact on Jammu and Kashmir has been magnified by several local factors. The uncontrolled urban expansion, deforestation and rampant encroachments on wetlands and water bodies in rural and urban areas have exacerbated the environmental degradation. Infrastructure projects have often been executed without adhering to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) guidelines, leading to unchecked exploitation of natural resources.
Moreover, the indiscriminate use of fertilisers, pollution from sewage and the lack of proper waste management systems have further deteriorated the health of natural springs and water bodies. Deforestation has resulted in soil erosion and siltation of rivers, reducing their capacity to store and channel water efficiently.
Recognising the gravity of the situation, experts and environmental groups have called for immediate and sustained action. The voluntary organisation, Nigeen Lake Conservation Organisation, has successfully restored numerous springs in Srinagar’s downtown area and initiated the cleaning of water bodies such as Khushalsar and Gilsar. Their efforts provide a model for community-driven conservation projects that can be replicated across the region.
The government must expand initiatives like Mission Amrit Sarovar to include the restoration of springs, wetlands and other crucial water bodies. Strict enforcement of environmental laws, afforestation drives and the integration of traditional water conservation practices are necessary steps toward mitigating the crisis.
- Climate change and the future of Kashmir’s ecology
The ecological threats posed by climate change extend beyond water scarcity and energy deficits. Warmer winters and prolonged summers have the potential to disrupt the entire ecological balance of the Himalayan region. The deficit in snowfall and rising temperatures over consecutive years could trigger cryosphere related hazards such as permafrost degradation, early snowmelt, glacier degeneration and glacial lake outbursts.
Faizan Arif, an independent weather forecaster in Kashmir, has elaborated upon the weak monsoon conditions affecting the region. From June 1 to July 28, 2024 Jammu and Kashmir received only 161.8 mm of rainfall, significantly below the normal 243.9 mm, resulting in a 34 percent shortfall. The erratic behavior of western disturbances and monsoon winds has led to a precarious precipitation deficit, intensifying the region’s vulnerability to extreme weather events.
A recent study has highlighted the shifting climate patterns in Kashmir, with reduced winter precipitation and rising summer temperatures affecting ecosystems and freshwater availability. Experts warn that these changes could lead to increased instances of floods and landslides, posing a direct threat to infrastructure, agriculture and human settlements.
Sonam Lotus, the former director of the Meteorological Department in Kashmir, while talking to KC, points to the increasing unpredictability in weather patterns: “One year, we face a rainfall deficit and the next, there is an excess of rain. These unpredictable weather conditions are a result of global climate change. This year, we are witnessing drought-like conditions in Kashmir due to reduced rainfall”.
- Scientific insights into climate variability
A comprehensive research paper published in Science Direct provides valuable insights into the long-term climatic changes in Kashmir. Analysing meteorological records from 1980 to 2018, the study has found significant trends in temperature increases across the Valley. Maximum temperatures (TMax) and minimum temperatures (TMin) show statistically significant positive trends, with annual increases of 0.035°C and 0.022°C, respectively.
The study has also observed shifting precipitation patterns, with non-significant positive trends in autumn, winter and spring but a declining trend in summer precipitation. The findings suggest an increasing influence of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and Western Disturbances (WDs) on Kashmir’s climate variability, affecting both environmental systems and hydrological cycles.
As former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has rightly pointed out, climate change is not a new phenomenon in Jammu and Kashmir but has been building up for years. However, what remains lacking is a collective and sustained effort to mitigate its impact. “All residents of J&K will have to change the way we take water for granted. We are not doing enough to educate our people about what is happening with climate change and the dangers it poses,” he recently emphasised and put out the same in a tweet.
Addressing climate change requires a multi-pronged approach involving government agencies, environmentalists, academia and local communities. Public participation in conservation efforts is paramount. Every household must take responsibility for water conservation, waste management and sustainable living practices.
With climate change posing an existential threat to Kashmir’s ecological balance, immediate and concrete action is necessary. The future of the region’s water security, agriculture, energy production and overall environmental health depends on our collective ability to adapt, conserve and mitigate the ongoing crisis. The time to act is now.
