APRIL 22, 2025. The date has got frozen in time, and it’s coloured blood red.
Yes, yet another date.
Yet another date when the innocent humanity was put to death and the hands that unleashed such a heinous act did not seem to quiver. Even a bit.
The gruesome terrorist attack on tourists at Pahalgam on April 22 yet again highlights the fragile security landscape in Jammu and Kashmir. We, at Kashmir Central, had, in our April edition, cautioned the establishment about a possible attack on tourists. Seems, the security establishment paid little or no heed to the report.
The curse of terrorism would undeniably stay looming since the hostile Pakistan refuses to give up on its state policy of exporting terrorism. That said, the counter-terrorism strategy has to be calibrated and appropriate. We argued in our March edition that in order to stop terrorists from misadventures, we needed to understand the basic terror psychology.
Keeping in view the seriousness of the situation and the massive destruction terrorists have been causing, here are some important aspects we need to take into consideration so that we are able to pre-empt such dangerous attacks on humanity.
Counter terrorism calls for deeper study
The very fundamentals of the counter-terrorism strategy should be based on the understanding of how terrorists operate, what provokes them and how they could exploit the given situation to their advantage. Or let’s say that understanding how terrorists operate is crucial for developing effective counter-terrorism strategies. Understanding the methodology of terrorists is vital for prevention, detection, and pre-emption. Intelligence inputs may or may not be there; what actually matters is the deep understanding of the methodology of terrorists. It is very important to have eyes and ears on ground while assessing the threat posed by terrorists.
In the face of the April 22 Pahalgam massacre, the security establishment of Jammu & Kashmir needs to uphold a counter-terrorism strategy devised from un-biased assessment of terrorist threat, besides shedding of illusions, protecting key areas that show success and yes, the resilience of the Kashmiris
Some international watchdogs argue that motives and methods of the terrorist groups are evolving in ways that complicate analysis and require the ability to ship resources flexibly and quickly. In a way, they tend to believe that terrorists inflicting mass death and destruction catch you off guard. According to them, terrorist groups can strike at anytime, anywhere, spurred by seemingly unrelated events for which they judge the State they operate in, to be blameworthy.
I have a different opinion. The success rate of any counter-terrorism strategy depends on how accurately you assess the threat posed by the terrorists. If the counter-terrorism strategy is devised upon an un-biased and honest assessment of the threat posed by terrorists in a given situation, you could actually avert bigger tragedies of the likes of the Pahalgam massacre. Threat assessment informs the development of response plans and protocols for dealing with terrorist incidents. This includes security protocols, emergency response procedures, and crisis management plans.
A smarter threat-assessment
Generally, threat assessment in our country is based on gathering of intelligence information by the field agencies. On that account, intelligence agencies are doing pretty well. For intelligence agencies, threat assessment involves identifying potential terrorist groups, their motives, capabilities, and vulnerabilities. This helps in understanding the nature of the threat and potential areas of vulnerability. However, this is only the quantifiable part of the assessment.
A very important thread is always missing in our threat assessment which is pivotal for deterrence of Pahalgam-like incidents. What frustrates the terrorists the most (with reference to Kashmir) is the narrative of normalcy and tourism. What does that mean? Well, the narrative of peace, development and tourism, from the security point of view, should be seen as a direct attack on terrorism more fatal than the kinetic response. Celebrating normalcy, zero level of violence, flourishing tourism, ever-progressing education, should, at the same time, be seen as the most vulnerable targets of the terrorists. So the threat assessment should be evaluated primarily on the basis of the core areas of your success stories. The motive is to negatively affect processes that terrorists see as against their interests or challenge their existence.
Earlier terrorist would carry out attacks designed to gain recognition. Currently the attacks – whether in the deep forests of Jammu region or in the Kashmir valley are more about undermining the legitimate government and its security apparatus, thus causing an uncoordinated backlash.
In 2021, at the commencement of the annual Amarnath Yatra, there were intelligence inputs of a possible attack on the yatra (pilgrims). I recall my conversation with Lt. Governor Manoj Sinha, advising him against the hype created around the record number of tourists visiting Kashmir during that year till the yatra culminated peacefully. I could actually sense that the terrorists would be frustrated by the campaign of record influx of tourists visiting Kashmir. I told Lt. Governor Sinha to suspend the media campaign till the Amarnath pilgrimage had culminated in August that year. I insisted, he could achieve the desirables without much ado, and that is precisely how the Amarnath pilgrimage was incident-free, besides providing a safe environment to the tourists. When you create hype around anything which obviously goes against the interests of the terrorists and their handlers across the border, then you need to be extra vigilant to prove the point.
Let’s not live in happy illusions
The second important thing which the security establishment and the intelligence agencies should seriously ponder over is the belief that post 2019, Kashmir is largely immune to terrorist attacks. This belief is based on the low number of terrorist attacks that took place in the Valley of Kashmir during 2019-2025 (April).
The Pahalgam attack on tourists on April 22, 2025 reflects on the vulnerability of the Kashmir Valley to terrorist attacks. In retrospect, however, there was no reason to discount Kashmir’s vulnerability to terrorist attacks. Historically, Kashmir has been the hotbed of terrorism right since its inception in 1989, denting a severe blow to the social fabric of the region besides extensive damage to property and significant loss of life. It was absolutely wrong on the part of the security managers to presume that the theatre had shifted from the Kashmir Valley to the south of Pirpanjal. I kept insisting throughout the years 2023 and 2024, that the terrorists had not shifted the theatre, rather they had expanded it to the Jammu region; and that the Kashmir Valley would remain at the centre of terrorism for many years to come.
Unfortunately, the establishment paid little or no heed to our observations essentially because the political system and the institution of Lieutenant Governor was more into articulation of the narrative of peace and normalcy – the Naya Kashmir. I could sense that the political system in New Delhi lost its eyes and ears on ground. They only heard what they wanted to hear. The assumption that the theatre of terrorism has shifted from Kashmir to Jammu and that Kashmir is completely peaceful and terrorism-free, is what we had to pay the price for in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025.
In our earlier editions of Kashmir Central, we had often strongly argued that the year 2025 would be very disturbing in Kashmir.
We had elaborated that it was very likely that the number of terrorist attacks taking place in the Kashmir Valley will increase. In August 2024, I told the then Jammu & Kashmir Police Chief R R Swain not to lose sight of Kashmir amidst growing terrorism in the Jammu region. But I could sense that he was not even interested in listening. Post 2019, all those sitting in the power corridors wanted to invest in pushing the narrative of Naya Kashmir (New Kashmir). We went to the extent of suggesting to both the Army and the police administration that Anantnag district would be at the centre of the theatre in 2025 but again it was ignored.
Keep an eye on key areas
Following this dastardly act at Pahalgam, it is very likely that the number of terrorist incidents could increase within the Kashmir Valley. It does not need rocket science to assess the situation. I am afraid that besides some sensitive security installations, the terrorists could strike on Amarnath pilgrims and it is also very likely that the Katra-Srinagar train could be on their radar. The security managers and the policy planners should never lose sight on these vitals which are being seen as the success stories of the Indian state.
Peaceful and incident-free conduct of the annual Amarnath pilgrimage poses a challenge to the existence of the terrorists and secondly, the new breed of terrorists seems to be least concerned about Kashmir and Kashmiris. That era has gone when Kashmiris would, with great confidence, argue that tourists and yatris would not be harmed. That phase of Kashmir terrorism is over. The new breed of terrorists is not only ruthless, they have no sympathy for Kashmir and Kashmiris because we need to understand that Kashmir is no more the central theme of the terrorism emanating from Pakistan.
We have argued in one of our earlier editions that the current phase of terrorism has more to do with the insecurities of Pakistan than anything else. To put it in simpler words, Pakistan is fighting its own battle in Kashmir. Pakistan is simply trying to engage New Delhi in Kashmir aimed at getting some advantage in Balochistan which is in the middle of a severe political crisis.
Second; it looks like terrorists would expand the range of targets that they consider legitimate for three reasons. First, as generational replacement has occurred in terrorist organisations, new leaders have become less concerned with ideological constraints and adverse public opinion. As a result, they are more willing to use excessively violent or shocking tactics. Second, limited and less lethal acts of terrorism repeated over time could not create an atmosphere of fear and insecurity among the people Kashmir and outside and could not gain desired public attention.
It is likely that terrorists would escalate the level of violence, use more shocking tactics designed to force people into a perpetual state of fear. Finally, the intensity of terrorist acts should match the violent tactics elsewhere, allowing the terrorist commanders perceive that they are increasingly powerful and second to none. We need to understand that the current phase of terrorism, as envisaged, has global ambitions, least interested in localised manifestations. So it wants the tremors to be felt globally, and create a climate of fear through a sustained campaign of violence to stay relevant at the global theatre. The point I am trying to make is that the orientation of the present form of terrorism is beyond the scope and size of the Kashmir conflict and there are no red lines as such.
The next target could be anything which undermines the political and military power of the Indian state. We could actually provide a more effective deterrent to terrorism only if the tourism sector, infrastructural projects, education sector, non-locals are tick-marked as permanently vulnerable targets prone to terrorist strikes.
We won’t rise without resilience
Last but not least – the focus has to be on inculcating the spirit of resilience among the Kashmiri people to withstand violent extremist ideologies and terrorism. The people of Kashmir have come a long way from supporting violence to being the anchors of peace and normalcy. However, the fear of terrorists still persists. It is encouraging to see Kashmiris coming out in large numbers to protest against the gruesome terrorist attack in which 28 tourists were killed by the terrorists in Pahalgam.
The next stage is denouncing terrorism in all its form and manifestations. That is crucial for any counter terrorism strategy to be successful and result-oriented. If we want to win the battle against terrorism, Kashmiris have to be at the forefront. That is possible only when there is a partnership based upon mutual respect and commitment to uphold the rule of law. The partnership could make it difficult for terrorists to undermine the interests of the Kashmiris and the nation.
Though the larger majority in Kashmir are completely disenchanted with violence and terrorism, it seems that an effective partnership between the people of Kashmir and the state is not so forthcoming, given the kind of polarisation we witness in the country. The cooperation between the people and the law enforcing arms of the state, particularly the Army, is very crucial for the fight against terrorism. I am sure the security managers are aware of the constraints under the given politically polarised environment and would recommend measures to the political system to overcome such a pressing deficit in counter terrorism strategy.
