MOHAMMAD SHAFI AYAZ
The 2024 Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections marked a significant political event, as it was the first election since the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories: Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. The National Conference, led by Omar Abdullah, emerged as the dominant party. The INDIA Alliance secured an absolute majority by winning 49 out of 90 seats. Its major partner, the National Conference, won 42 seats, while Congress secured sixseats, and the CPI(M) won one seat.
The BJP won 29 seats, the PDP three, the Aam Aadmi Party one seat, the Peoples Conference one seat, the AIP one seat, and independents secured six seats.
The National Conference performed amazingly well, with results that exceeded the party’s expectations. It significantly increased its number of seats to 42, compared to the 15 seats it won in 2014. Its vote share also increased by 2%, reaching 23.43%.
Factors That Contributed To NC Success
The National Conference’s victory is seen as a vote of confidence from the public, especially in the Kashmir region. Several key factors contributed to its success. The people of the Kashmir Valley expressed their disagreement with the BJP’s policies, particularly following the revocation of the state’s special status and its downgrade to a Union Territory. This sentiment played a significant role in rallying support against the BJP and its allies.
The National Conference successfully convinced voters that the PDP’s coalition with the BJP in 2014 led to a deterioration in the region’s situation, as the PDP facilitated the entry of the BJP into state affairs. This narrative resonated well with the public, making PDP a less favoured option.
NC made appealing promises, including the restoration of Article 370, statehood, job guarantees, and financial support for low-income families, along with free electricity, gas cylinders, and food provisions.
The National Conference made appealing promises, including the restoration of Article 370, statehood, job guarantees, and financial support for low-income families, along with free electricity, gas cylinders, and food provisions. Additionally, they proposed welfare schemes for women, such as free public transport and marriage assistance.
Aga Ruhulla, the young parliamentarian of the party, played a crucial role in leading the campaign and assuring the public that the party would fulfil their aspirations regarding the special status of the state. He even promised the people that if the party leadership deviated from this vital issue, he would not hesitate to leave the party.
Overall, the National Conference was able to capitalize on public discontent and present itself as the most viable alternative to the BJP and its allied parties, which were termed “BJP’s B Teams.”
BJP’s Sterling Performance in Jammu Region
In Jammu region, the BJP also performed well, where it secured 29 seats—the highest ever in J&K. Its seat count increased by three, and its vote share rose to 25.65%, a 2% increase from the previous elections. The key factors for the BJP’s success in the Jammu region were its strong influence in Hindu-majority areas. Although it failed to make significant inroads in the Kashmir Valley, where none of its candidates or its so-called “B team” candidates performed well, the party’s campaign in Jammu focused on regional politics.
The BJP openly accused the regional parties, including the National Conference and PDP, of encouraging terrorism and being responsible for anti-national activities. It also blamed Congress for forming an alliance with the National Conference, portraying it as a threat to national security. The BJP successfully convinced the Hindu-majority population of the so-called threat posed by these parties and capitalized on this narrative. As a result, they were able to secure the majority of the vote by propagating security concerns and appealing to regional sentiments.
Why The Congress Performed Poorly
The Congress Party, which contested the elections under the banner of the INDIA Alliance alongside the National Conference, underperformed compared to expectations. They won only 6 seats, down from 12 in the previous assembly. Their vote share also declined significantly, dropping to an all-time low of 11.97% in the region.
The Congress suffered major losses in the Jammu region, securing only one seat in Rajouri, while the other five seats were from Kashmir. They failed to win a single seat in the Hindu-dominated areas of the Jammu region.
Two main factors contributed to thedefeat of the Congress, which the BJP effectively capitalized on. First, the BJP convinced the Hindu majority that the Congress was anti-Hindu and anti-Jammu due to its alliance with the National Conference, a party perceived to have separatist leanings in Kashmir. This allegation worked well in favour of the BJP and hurt the Congress. Moreover, the Congress failed to counter this narrative effectively.
The second reason for their poor performance in some seats in the Jammu region was the so-called “friendly contests.” Although the Congress entered into a poll alliance with the National Conference in several constituencies, many Congress candidates lost these friendly contests, with either the National Conference or other parties or candidates winning those seats.
Significant Slide For PDP
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which previously ruled the coalition government in the state with the BJP, was the worst sufferer in these elections. Compared to its previous tally of 28 seats, it could win only 3 seats this time, with a significant drop in vote share by 14%, declining from the previous 22% to 8.87%.
Despite intense efforts to make a substantial impact, the final result was a setback for PDP. The party paid a heavy price for entering into a coalition with the BJP in the previous government. The anti-BJP sentiment was evident. Not only did the BJP face backlash in Kashmir, but its so-called “B teams” did as well, and the PDP could not save itself from this backlash, facing the voters’ wrath.
The PDP, in particular, suffered due to its past affiliation with the BJP. Although the party openly declared a harsh stance against the BJP and the central government’s decisions, such as the revocation of Article 370, the National Conference was quick to highlight the PDP’s past record.
Furthermore, the party lacked an organized cadre, as the majority of its legislators and leaders had deserted it. The selection of candidates for the election also sparked dissent within the party, leading to further resignations. Some disgruntled leaders contested independently against the PDP’s official candidates, worsening the party’s situation, while others worked against these party candidates. PDP hardly secured two seats from South Kashmir, once considered a stronghold of the party.
In the Jammu region, the BJP also attacked the PDP, acknowledging that they had previously formed a coalition government together but claimed that they withdrew their support upon realizing the PDP’s so-called “anti-national” ideology. The BJP further alleged that the PDP was a second face of separatist organizations and supported terrorism.
These allegations resonated with the people of the Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu, leaving the PDP with no foothold in these regions. PDP candidates managed to secure a good number of votes in Pir Panchal and other Muslim-dominated areas of Jammu but could not win any seats.
Why Parties Labelled As BJP’s B Teams Suffered Huge Losses
Other parties, such as Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party, Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference, Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Azad Party (DAP), and Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittihad Party (AIP)—often referred to as the “B teams” of the BJP—failed to make any significant impact.
Bukhari’s Apni Party and Azad’s DAP could not secure any seats and performed miserably. Engineer Rashid, who had previously defeated Omer Abdullah in the parliamentary elections, was unable to maintain the high tempo in his support.
During the parliamentary elections, Engineer Rashid was in jail, and his victory was largely attributed to a sympathy vote. However, after his release, he was seen as an affiliate of the BJP, earning him the label of “BJP’s B team.” Despite having led almost all assembly segments in North Kashmir during the recent parliamentary elections, his party managed to secure only one seat. His decline in support can also be attributed to this perceived affiliation. Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference could secure only one seat, down from two seats in the previous assembly.
The CPI(M) retained its sole seat in Kulgam, where Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami won the election under the banner of the INDIA Alliance. Interestingly, the Aam Aadmi Party made inroads in Jammu, securing the Doda assembly seat.
Six other candidates won the election as independents, most of whom had previously been affiliated with either the National Conference or the Congress. After being denied tickets by their parties, they contested on their own as independent candidates.
Surprisingly, the number of independent candidates contesting elections was exceptionally high, particularly in the Kashmir Valley. However, the majority of them, except for the aforementioned six, lost and even forfeited their security deposits. It became evident to the public that many of these candidates were proxy candidates for the BJP, leading them to face the anti-BJP sentiment in the region. The banned organization Jamaat-i-Islami also participated in these elections for the first time since 1987. While they did not contest at the party level, several members ran as independent candidates.
Although they did not win any seats, they managed to secure a significant number of votes. This allowed them to re-emerge in the public eye for the first time since the organization was banned. By participating in these elections, they attempted to demonstrate a shift in their stance on the Kashmir issue. Their decision was seen as a strategy to safeguard the party and its workers from tough action by the Government of India for their alleged involvement in anti-national activities.
The decline in support for Engineer Rashid can be attributed to his perceived affiliation with BJP.
The Major Takeaways From J&K Assembly Elections 2024
The following may be considered as the major outcomes of the assembly elections of 2024.
- The elections reaffirmed the dominance of regional parties like the National Conference, indicating that despite political changes since 2019, traditional parties retain a strong influence, especially in the Kashmir region, while the BJP continues to hold sway in Jammu.
- The electoral outcome reflects the complex political dynamics in the post-Article 370 environment, with both national and regional issues influencing voter behaviour across both divisions.
- It also highlights the extent of the political wedge between the two regions. Voter behaviour is becoming more religion-centred, and the political direction of the people in the Union Territory is increasingly divergent.
- The most important issues—restoration of special status, statehood, regional aspirations, security, dignity, and political stability—have dominated these elections.
- These elections cannot be projected as an acceptance of the abrogation of Article 370 or the special status of the state. Rather, people carved out a way forward by voting the National Conference to power, which they viewed as a lesser evil under the circumstances.
These concerns will have long-lasting implications for the political trajectory of Jammu and Kashmir.
