IN the shifting geopolitical landscape of South Asia, the Kashmir Valley, once highly sensitive to the reverberations of statements issued by the Pakistani establishment, has undergone a significant transformation. The recent remarks by Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir, calling Kashmir the “jugular vein” of Pakistan, did little to stir the political consciousness of the average Kashmiri. This marks a stark departure from a not-so-distant past when even the faintest provocation or rhetorical flourish from Islamabad would ignite debates, provoke editorials and find resonance in public discourse. Pertinently, socio-political and psychological shift in Kashmir’s reception to Pakistani rhetoric, today such statements are now viewed as hollow echoes of a bygone era.
The idea of Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein” was born out of the ideological crucible of the two-nation theory, a theory that has long ceased to hold relevance among modern, politically-aware Kashmiris. In the 1990s and early 2000s, statements by Pakistani military leaders like General Pervez Musharraf or General Ashfaq Kayani found fertile ground among Kashmir’s politically and emotionally vulnerable populace. These were the decades when the separatist ideology was at its zenith, when Pakistan was seen as a potential savior and when emotional solidarity often overshadowed pragmatic assessments.
In 2019, General Qamar Javed Bajwa made overtures suggesting a shift towards peaceful coexistence. While initially met with intrigue, these gestures ultimately fizzled into the void of Pakistan’s inconsistent policy and internal instability. Since then, Pakistan had largely refrained from overt military or rhetorical provocations, until General Munir’s recent statement attempted to reignite a flame that is now visibly extinguished in the Valley.
Kashmir’s awakening: Illusion to realism
Today’s Kashmiri population is more politically conscious, information-savvy and far less gullible. The disillusionment with separatist ideologues has completely withered. Years of being misled by ideologues who promised a dream that turned into decades of instability and bloodshed have left deep scars. Public memory is long in Kashmir. From the broken promises of UN resolutions to the betrayal of strategic interest for tactical gains by Pakistan, Kashmiris have now accepted the limits of what Islamabad can do and more importantly, what it cannot.
The people of Kashmir have witnessed Pakistan’s descent into political chaos, economic crisis, religious polarisation and moral bankruptcy. A country that cannot secure its own territorial integrity, as seen in the rise of extremism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, has little credibility left to posture as a benefactor of Kashmir. The so-called support, rhetorical or strategic, is now viewed as self-serving and performative.
Pakistan struggles with its own dysfunction
Pakistan is at a crossroads of dysfunction. The country is facing an unprecedented economic meltdown, with inflation, debt dependency and a fragile political structure undermining its global image. The IMF, once a stern negotiator, seems to have taken a lenient approach lately, possibly to avoid further instability in the region, not as an endorsement of Pakistan’s policies.
When recently, Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir called Kashmir the “jugular vein” of Pakistan, he hardly managed to stir the political consciousness of the average Kashmiri. It’s time for Pakistan to realise that the Kashmir narrative is increasingly out of touch with the ground reality where Pakistan is hardly perceived as a benefactor of Kashmir.
Moreover, international watchdogs have become increasingly toothless, maybe plain disinterested. Human rights concerns raised by Pakistan about Kashmir rarely find traction beyond performative resolutions in redundant global institutions like the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation). Even within the United Nations, the Kashmir issue has become a marginal note in a larger global crisis.
China accentuates its Pak bond
A notable shift, however, is the involvement of China. Once a silent observer, China has now emerged as a stakeholder following the border tensions in Eastern Ladakh with India. This could partly explain Pakistan’s renewed enthusiasm in pushing the Kashmir narrative. Beijing’s strategic discomfort with India gives Islamabad a perceived backer. However, China’s support is not ideological but transactional. It is rooted in its own regional ambitions and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which runs through disputed Gilgit-Baltistan.
But even with Chinese whispers in the background, Pakistan’s Kashmir policy remains hollow. There is no cohesive diplomatic offensive, no structured narrative that can challenge India’s position globally.
A fresh new perspective
India’s emergence as an economic powerhouse and a credible military prowess has fundamentally altered how the international community views the Kashmir issue. The decentralisation of global power, the focus on Indo-Pacific dynamics and the West’s strategic alignment with India as a counterweight to China have all diluted international sympathy for Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative.
India’s strong response through the Ministry of External Affairs, rubbishing General Munir’s claim by stating – “How can anything foreign be in a jugular vein?” was both assertive and symbolically definitive. It encapsulated India’s new diplomatic confidence. New Delhi no longer feels compelled to engage in long-winded rebuttals. The world, largely, is no longer listening to Pakistan.
Earlier, such statements would dominate the front pages of local Kashmiri newspapers. They would be followed by columns from separatist-leaning writers who would dissect every word, attempting to rekindle hopes of ‘Azadi’ with Pakistani support. Today, these statements barely make the news cycle. Vernacular dailies either relegate them to minor columns or ignore them altogether. The literate and politically aware youth of Kashmir have rejected these narratives wholesale.
Social media, a powerful barometer of public sentiment, shows scant interest in General Munir’s remarks. Even digital platforms associated with religious or separatist groups seem reluctant to give these comments the space they once would have.
Statements from religious clerics or organisations like Jamaat-e-Islami, once capable of mobilising thousands, are now met with indifference. The movement has lost much of its credibility. Younger Kashmiris, disillusioned by decades of ideological manipulation, seek economic prosperity, better governance and peace, not jehadi rhetoric or slogans of martyrdom.
A generational shift is at play. The new Kashmiris are students of international relations, economics, technology and governance. They no longer believe in messianic interventions. They are acutely aware that Pakistan cannot alter the status quo. They understand that moral authority rests not on proclamations but on performance and Pakistan’s performance has been abysmal.
Pakistan’s recent efforts to revive its Kashmir narrative, be it at international forums or via military statements or by its political leadership, represent a futile exercise in strategic nostalgia. The world has moved on. More crucially, Kashmir has moved on. The Valley now looks inward for growth and peace rather than outward for rhetorical solidarity.
General Munir’s statement, in its essence, was not just a reminder of Pakistan’s enduring obsession with Kashmir, it was a poignant indicator of its growing irrelevance. As Ghalib poetically noted – “Pehle aati thi haal-e-dil pe hansi, Ab kisi baat pe nahi aati.” The sentiment of romanticism with resistance has long passed. What remains is a cold, calculated realism and a populace that refuses to be swayed.
Pakistan, despite all efforts, cannot reclaim what it never truly had: the genuine trust and admiration of the Kashmiri people.
Pakistan finds help
But the reality can’t be dodged: In the recent months, Pakistan has experienced modest economic stabilisation, primarily due to international financial interventions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 7 USD billion loan for Pakistan, with an immediate disbursement of 1 USD billion, aimed at supporting the country’s struggling economy. Additionally, the IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan to unlock USD 1.3 billion under a new 28-month climate resilience loan program, further bolstering the nation’s financial standing. These developments have led to a slight improvement in Pakistan’s economic indicators, including a slight decrease in inflation and a reduction in the current account deficit.
Amid these economic and diplomatic developments, Pakistan has renewed its focus on the Kashmir issue. General Asim Munir’s recent statement referring to Kashmir as Pakistan’s jugular vein signifies a revival of rhetoric that had been subdued during periods of economic turmoil. This pattern suggests that with the perception of improved economic stability and international legitimacy, Pakistan feels emboldened to reassert its stance on Kashmir.
However, this renewed emphasis appears disconnected from the current realities in Kashmir. The region has undergone significant sociopolitical changes, with a growing segment of the population expressing disillusionment with separatist ideologies and skepticism towards Pakistan’s intentions. The Kashmir of today is not the same as it was in 2016 or in 2019; the populace is more politically conscious and less susceptible to external rhetoric. Pakistan’s attempts to reignite the Kashmir narrative may not resonate as they once did, highlighting a potential misalignment between Islamabad’s strategies and the evolving sentiments within Kashmir.
The younger generation in Kashmir, more informed and pragmatic, prioritises economic development and stability over ideological affiliations. They recognize that Pakistan’s internal challenges limit its capacity to effect meaningful change in the region. Consequently, the Valley’s focus has shifted inward, seeking progress through self-reliance rather than external support.
In this context, Pakistan’s attempts to revive its Kashmir narrative appear increasingly out of touch with the realities on the ground. The Valley’s silence is not apathy but a conscious choice to move beyond rhetoric towards a more hopeful and self-determined future.
