AFTER a brief pause in infiltration along the LoC (Line of Control) during the winter months, militants, it is observed, have again shifted focus on the International Border (IB) in Jammu, Samba and Kathua districts. There are reports that a good number of them have been camping at the launch pads, waiting for an opportunity to sneak into this side.
The Kashmir Central has learnt from reliable sources that a spike in activity has been observed in Pakistani posts of Dhundiyal, Ghandiyal, Chattar, Khanoor, Hiranagar and Akhnoor, Samba and Ramghar sectors. Terrorists, as sources tell us, are presently working out a strategy of making their presence felt by hitting soft targets in the coming months.
The launch pads located close to posts of the Pakistani Rangers across the International Border in Jammu, Samba and Kathua districts are currently witnessing some kind of activities, say the sources.
Light winters have sheltered militants
The low level of snowfall during the winters could be exploited for early infiltration attempts by militants from across the Line of Control in Keran, Machil, Teetwal, Gurez and Uri sectors in the Kashmir Valley and Poonch and Rajouri districts to the south of Pirpanjal. It merits a mention here that the Kashmir Valley has recorded around 60% below normal snowfall during this winter making LoC even more vulnerable for early Spring infiltration attempts.
As per the sources, the movement of militants on Pakistani side has increased along both the Line of Control and the International Border since the beginning of March – a clear indication that infiltration attempts could potentially increase soon. Even though sophisticated surveillance systems along the LoC in the Keran, Machil, Karna, Uri, and Teetwal sectors are deployed to monitor activities, the difficult terrains and high mountainous ridges could still be explored by the militants to sneak into this side.
The activities along the Line of Control or the International Border are not unusual in any way. Such infiltration and exfiltration activities are not entirely new for this region. Jammu and Kashmir has been prone to such incursions for the last three-four decades.
As reported by Kashmir Central in an earlier edition, a significant number of highly trained militants are hiding in the forests across North and Central Kashmir. These are those militants who didn’t come down to the plains even during the winters as no majorly inclement weather was recorded during this cold season in the Valley.
But the ‘fear’ strategy won’t work
This summer could pose some sort of challenge to the security management, given the fact that militants are reportedly working on a strategy to hit the soft targets for strategic reasons. There are indications that militant handlers in Pakistan are meticulously working on a strategy of fear-psychosis in order to create an atmosphere of insecurity among both locals and non-locals. Even though the hardcore militants carried out some deadly attacks throughout the year 2024 in the upper reaches of the Jammu region, inflicting causalities on security forces, the attacks went un-noticed and failed to provoke the intended fear and collective uncertainty. Beyond those who experienced the terrorist strikes directly, the larger community of Jammu and Kashmir refused to take any adverse psychological impact of the terrorist strikes.
Militants, after a brief pause, seem all set to infiltrate the LoC and International Border, thanks to lighter, relatively shorter winter. But the good news is, their intention to create fear is falling flat since the people of J&K have suffered so much that they have grown fearless. And that all the more aids the security managers and policy planners in New Delhi.
It is very encouraging to observe that the people of Jammu & Kashmir, as per my observation, are somehow increasingly resolute not to allow terrorism to occupy their mind space. Such an observation could greatly help the policy planners and security managers to understand the evolution of a society that has witnessed protracted conflict. My intention is to highlight some of the salient and relevant findings that may direct responses to terrorism events.
Outgrowing fear
In the context of the renewed current phase of terrorism, we certainly need to understand the psychological and physiological make-up of the younger generation that grew in an atmosphere marred with terrorism and bloodshed. Let me invoke the famous Urdu couplet which accurately captures the essence of such a situation
‘Ranj se khoogar hua insaan, to mitt jaata hai ranj;
mushkilein itni padin ke aasaan ho gayin’
(If a person becomes accustomed to grief, the grief fades away and disappears. As in – I suffered so many hardships that they eventually became easy to bear).
The collective past experiences and the collective future expectations do interact with the characteristics of the traumatic experience to produce the collective social and psychological response. The Kashmir society has witnessed so much of trauma in the past that the collective response to resurrection has no impact on the collective psyche and that could be fascinating for the researchers and scholars who really want understand the psychological, biological and genetic characteristics of the generation that’s lived the conflict. A majority of people in Jammu and Kashmir respond to terrorism very mildly now.
Why? Well, honestly, I don’t know because I am not a psychologist or a psychiatrist. I can only talk about the mood of the general public. But this certainly has implications on the overall security situation. If the general public refuses to give any space to the discourse on terrorism, then it certainly means that howsoever lethal or deadly the renewed phase of terrorism is, it could not or would not last long. And that is precisely the point I am trying to make. The response of the security forces and the political statements of the political establishment, for me, have least significance. What really matters is how the people respond to the emerging situation.
Food for thought, Policy Planners!
The terrorist organisations and their handlers have absolutely no idea about the churnings of the Kashmir society and I am afraid the policy planners in New Delhi too are somehow ignorant about these churnings. For New Delhi, such a mild response to renewed terrorism is the outcome of the “monumental decisions of revocation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution”, the security measures thereof, and so on and so forth. Well, we need to look at things beyond the events of 2019 from a completely localised perspective. Only then could we formulate an effective action plan.
That said, there are desperate attempts by the terrorist commanders and their handlers in Pakistan to create an atmosphere of insecurity and uncertainty in Kashmir and set a public discourse accordingly. Bearing that in mind, the security managers should be pre-emptive and pro-active in their approach. That is possible when you think like a terrorist handler, not as an Army officer. The difference between the Indian Army and the Pakistani Army is only this – that Indians think like officers, and their counterparts that side think like terrorists.
Playing the ‘human rights’ card
Over the last three or four months, the Pakistani establishment and its progenies have suddenly started a campaign in Jammu & Kashmir around the ‘human rights’. What does it really mean when the number of allegations of human rights violations has come down to 0.001% over last three years?! The social media platforms, the media in Pakistan, Pakistani and Kashmiri activists all across the world have suddenly unleashed a vicious campaign of “human rights abuses” in Kashmir. My limited understanding suggests that the militants would hit the soft targets like tourists, migrant workers and the locals in the coming months. The campaign unleashed beforehand (when there are no such allegations barring a couple of mishaps) is designed to pass the buck to the Indian side as and when the events unfold.
Terrorists are outlawed – having no respect for human rights, values, virtues and laws. On the other hand, the pre-event, event and post-event responses of the security forces have to be within the framework of human virtues, values and international laws. The promotion and protection of human rights for all and the rule of law is essential to all components of the strategy, recognising that effective counter-terrorism measures and the promotion of human rights are not conflicting goals, but complementary and mutually reinforcing. From a terrorist’s perspective, the security forces are handcuffed by obligations, and are vulnerable to allegations. And that is how they formulate their strategies. Terrorism clearly has a very real and direct impact on human rights, with devastating consequences on the enjoyment of the right to life, liberty and physical integrity of victims.
In addition to these individual costs, terrorism can jeopardise peace and security, and threaten social and economic development. All of these also have a real impact on the enjoyment of human rights. What does that mean for the security apparatus? Well kinetics is just a part of the response; the security forces, by the cascading consequences of terrorism, are the defenders of human rights, saviours of human life, protectors of human values, virtues, agents of peace, catalysts for economy and development. Understand the dynamics: just one incident could perforate the hard-earned achievements. This is the height of the vulnerability. However, as discussed earlier, the biggest advantage to the law-enforcing agencies in the current scenario is that the society in Jammu and Kashmir has evolved to the extent that it is insusceptible.
I insist, the evolution is always irreversible and that goes to the advantage of the security managers and policy planners in New Delhi.
