BASHIR ASSAD
175 years ago, French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote an oxymoron that resonates across cultures and political climes. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même: The English translation – the more things change, the more they stay the same.
At first glance, Karr’s words seem illogical, but in context they make complete sense. Little would the erudite Frenchman know that nearly two centuries later, his words would fit Kashmir politics like a glove.
The abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 was followed by bifurcation of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories and altered the region’s governance. Despite the tectonic shift, combinations and permutations of Kashmir politics have not seen the transformation that was anticipated initially.
Soon after the events of 2019, Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a kind of political roiling with the formation of almost a dozen new political parties and their subsequent registration with the Election Commission of India. The trend of establishing new political parties was witnessed in both the regions of the newly formed Union Territory – Jammu and Kashmir. Political watchers and observers jumped the guns, signalling a titanic shift in the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir. Factors on ground initially validated their assumption that Kashmir’s political landscape had changed irrevocably.
New Political Formations Have Been Unable To Gain Dominant Space
In March 2020, the disgruntled leader of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Syed Altaf Bukhari established the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party as a centrist alternative focused on advocating for peace, development and the restoration of statehood, which the region lost following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. This was followed by massive resignations of Mehbooba Mufti’s cadre.
The majority of those who left PDP joined Altaf Bukhari. Kashmir watchers in the power corridors in New Delhi would see a viable political alternative in the newly formed Apni Party under the leadership of Altaf Bukhari.
Two-and-a-half years later, the Democratic Azad Party was launched on September 26, 2022, by former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad. Azad’s departure from Congress was also seen as a significant shift in the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.
Again, there was buzz in some circles that Azad enjoys clout in Jammu region, and Altaf would replace National Conference and Peoples’ Democratic Party in Kashmir valley. Both Azad and Altaf started an onslaught on Kashmir’s “political dynasts” with so much of fervour and enthusiasm.
Other smaller groups also took shape, like National Awami United Party, Aman aur Shanti Tehreek-e-Jammu and Kashmir, National Democratic Party, Voice of Labour Party, Haq Insaaf Party and the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Movement.
Shah Faesal Promised ‘Hawa Badlegi’, The Experiment Failed
One party bucked this post-abrogation trend and formed a good six months before Article 370 was scrapped was the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Movement (JKPM). The party was founded in March 2019 by former IAS officer Dr Shah Faesal and aimed to introduce a fresh perspective. JKPM’s promise of ‘hawa badlegi’ (the winds shall change) on Kashmir faded after Faesal withdrew from politics in 2020.
Pertinently, all the newly established political parties had the support base of the old disgruntled political horses; Faesal’s Peoples Movement was the only exception. As was expected by seasoned Kashmir watchers, none of the newly formed political parties could bring a fresh perspective to the political horizon of Jammu and Kashmir.
District Development Councils Could Not Yield Fresh Political Alternatives
And Why
Notwithstanding the anger and disillusionment of the public against National Conference and PDP over the events of 2019, new leadership could not emerge on the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir. Initially, the newly constituted District Development Councils (DDCs) in 2020 were considered as launching pads for the new faces.
However, the powerful bureaucracy enjoying unbridled powers in absence of an elected government played saboteurs, scuttling every effort to groom new faces. It is equally true that many among the lot which emerged from the first ever DDC elections were either disgruntled elements of other political parties or those with doubtful credentials.
The District Development Council (DDC) elections in Jammu and Kashmir, held in December 2020 and January 2021, were a landmark event following the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the state into Union Territories. These elections were the first major democratic exercise in the region post abrogation of Article 370. The DDC elections were conducted in eight phases, with over 50% voter turnout.
The establishment of DDCs was intended to decentralise governance and bring decision-making closer to the people. Each council, consisting of 14 members elected from each district, is responsible for planning and overseeing local development projects, providing a platform for grassroots political engagement.
However, bureaucratic hurdles coupled with social stigmatisation of political debuts, if any, didn’t allow emergence of fresh perspective to the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.
Why Things Have Remained The Same
There are reasons why Kashmir’s political space has largely remained the same, despite waves of new political activity on the surface.
Kashmir’s oldest political party, the National Conference, has retained its strength on account of its strong and committed organizational workforce, which has remained intact despite pulls and pressures.
Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP was dealt a severe blow with almost all of her former ministers and legislators deserting her and joining newly formed political parties headed by Bukhari and Azad. Congress too was dealt a severe blow initially but only to the embarrassment of Azad, as most of them rejoined the Congress party within a month or so.
The perception that the disgruntled political horses change their loyalties for being opportunists having lust to stay in power by hook or by crook has been the abiding political reality. The political disgruntled political horses faced a humiliating drubbing in their respective assembly segments during Lok Sabha elections. Sensing the mood of the electorate, the old political horses immediately after the decision by the ECI to hold elections in J&K in 3 phases starting from September 18, shifted their loyalties abandoning Altaf Bukhari and G N Azad.
With the formation of the Apni Party in 2020, Mehbooba Mufti was left alone by the political opportunists. Now Azad and Bukhari have met with the same fate. Those who left Apni Party, Democratic Azad Party and Sajad Lone’s Peoples Conference have re-joined their old political formations like PDP, Congress and in certain cases, the National Conference.
Azad, Bukhari and Sajad Lone Could Not Emerge As Viable Political Alternatives
Azad, Bukhari and Sajad Lone have not emerged as the political forces that they were expected to be. The trio could not provide a viable political alternative to the National Conference, Congress and PDP – the traditional formations in Jammu and Kashmir. The pre-poll alliance between National Conference and Congress in Jammu and Kashmir stitched by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and NC president Dr. Farooq Abdullah as such is the formidably dominating political force under the given scenario.
The Rise of Engineer Rashid
The jailed political leader and recently elected Lok Sabha member from North Kashmir Engineer Rashid seems to be making an ambitious bid to provide a political alternative. Rashid outweighed the political stalwarts, former chief minister Omar Abdullah and People’s Conference leader Sajad Lone. Both suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Rashid even though he has been in Tihar Jail since 2019 facing charges of terror funding.
The recently held Lok Sabha elections saw a record voter turnout of 58.46% in Jammu and Kashmir, the highest in the region in the past 35 years. This unprecedented participation resulted in a historic victory for Engineer Rashid, an independent candidate from North Kashmir’s Baramulla constituency, who managed to unseat the traditional stalwarts.
Simultaneously, the elections proved to be a significant setback for prominent regional leaders Mehbooba Mufti of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Omar Abdullah of the National Conference (NC). Mehbooba, contesting from South Kashmir’s Anantnag constituency, faced a defeat, which many attribute to the region’s disillusionment with her party’s past alliance with the BJP.
Yearning Of The People For Viable Political Alternatives
One could argue that the drubbing of Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah in Lok Sabha elections, in a way, reflects on the yearning of the people for viable political alternatives. However, the political chameleons failed to attract the electorate. As far as Engineer Rashid and his Awami Ittehad Party are concerned, the limited resources and continued incarceration of its leader are the major roadblocks for the party in providing an alternative to the traditional political parties. Still Er. Rashid’s party could leave some lasting imprints on Kashmir politics in a few assembly segments of North Kashmir.
On the other hand, Mehbooba Mufti faces tough challenges as many youngsters enjoying a certain degree of clout in their respective pockets have deserted her in South Kashmir, making the contest even more difficult for her.
As of now, it seems a direct contest between BJP and NC-Congress alliance in Jammu and Kashmir. The fragmentation of sections of society in frontier districts of Poonch and Rajouri south of Pir Panjal could, to some extent, change the scenario. Let’s wait and see how the events unfold, particularly under changing security scenarios, with the escalation in terrorist attacks in Jammu region.
