MIAN TUFAIL
The Union government’s approach to Kashmir has long been a subject of debate, with its policies oscillating between short-term electoral gains and a broader vision for long-term stability. The recent bail granted to Engineer Rashid, a prominent Kashmiri politician and Member Parliament Baramulla, brings back into focus the intricate dynamics of electoral politics in the region. His political actions, it is argued, might dent the National Conference (NC) electorally but the consequences of such developments raise serious questions about the long-term impact on Kashmir’s socio-political landscape.
The challenge lies in the evolving narrative where political gains may come at the cost of long-term stability
The Dilemma of Engineer Rashid’s Bail
The bail granted to Engineer Rashid has sparked speculation about its possible impact on the National Conference’s electoral fortunes. While some view this as part of a larger strategy to fragment the opposition vote thereby weakening NC, the broader implications are far more significant. The challenge lies in the evolving narrative where political gains often come at the cost of long-term stability.
In past elections, New Delhi’s attempts to undercut NC’s power, such as during the 1977 elections when Mirwaiz Farooq was used against NC left a lingering resentment. This event did not merely weaken NC but fueled sentiments against the Indian state. The policy of propping up opposition against the NC, while electorally successful in the short term, has often contributed to an anti-India discourse in the valley. These decisions resonate beyond individual elections and shape the broader psyche, particularly among the youth in Kashmir.
National Conference’s Complex Legacy
The National Conference led by the Abdullah family has a complex legacy in Kashmir’s political history. Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah have both faced criticism for prioritizing protocol and power during their tenures. The party has been accused of corruption and a dynastic style of leadership and often patronizing tainted political leaders. However, one must distinguish between NC’s flaws as a party and its role in shaping the political narrative in Kashmir.
NC has been accused of rigging elections in 1987 when allegations of election rigging sparked widespread unrest. Yet, despite these accusations the NC cannot be solely blamed for the eruption of violence in Kashmir. By the time the 1987 elections occurred there was already an undercurrent of discontent. Pakistan capitalized on this unrest, introducing gun culture to the valley and fueling militancy.
It is important to note that NC has never been overtly associated with promoting separatism. In fact, many separatist movements in Kashmir have developed in opposition to NC’s dominance in the region. While the party has faced accusations of electoral malpractice, it has generally supported Kashmir’s integration within the Indian Union. The rise of separatism, therefore, must be understood as a reaction to broader political and socio-economic conditions, rather than the actions of any one party.
The Role of Jamaat-e-Islami and its Influence
A significant aspect of the political landscape in Kashmir has been the role of Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). Often operating like a semi-government organization, JeI has historically played a dual role: on one hand, acting as a counterbalance to the ruling elite, while on the other hand, fostering an ideology that has proven to be a fertile ground for separatism.
The Union government’s policy towards JeI has been ambivalent, at times using the organization to counterbalance the power of mainstream political parties like NC. However, this strategy has inadvertently legitimized JeI’s influence and its ability to mobilize support particularly among the youth. Over the years, a generation has emerged in Kashmir, influenced by JeI’s ideology and increasingly disillusioned with the Indian state.
While this strategy may have yielded short-term electoral benefits for New Delhi in the past, its long-term consequences are deeply concerning. JeI’s influence has contributed to the growth of an anti-India narrative in Kashmir, which has only grown stronger over time. The government’s failure to recognize the deeper ideological impact of JeI on the Kashmiri psyche is one of the critical flaws in its Kashmir policy.
Fragmentation of the Political Mandate
Engineer Rashid’s potential to fragment the political mandate in the current elections is not an isolated incident. Over the years, New Delhi’s policy of encouraging smaller political actors to weaken dominant parties has become a familiar tactic. However, this approach, while effective in preventing NC from consolidating power has broader implications for the region’s political stability.
The emergence of fragmented mandates creates a vacuum in the political discourse where no single party can claim a clear mandate to govern. This, in turn, creates space for narratives that are increasingly hostile to the Indian state. Rashid’s ability to dilute NC’s electoral influence may benefit certain actors in the short term but the long-term consequence is the strengthening of a narrative that challenges the Indian Union’s legitimacy in Kashmir.
While the National Conference has its share of flaws, it is not responsible for the rise of separatism in Kashmir. The separatist movement has often developed in opposition to NC’s dominance, and the party’s pro-India stance has been overshadowed by its internal weaknesses. The government’s focus on weakening NC, while electorally beneficial, has failed to address the deeper ideological challenges that threaten the region’s stability.
If New Delhi is serious about achieving long-term peace in Kashmir, it must rethink its approach. The focus must shift from short-term electoral strategies to addressing the socio-economic and political grievances of Kashmir’s youth. Only by engaging with the aspirations of the next generation can the government hope to build a stable and prosperous Kashmir within the Indian Union.
