MIAN TUFAIL
The 2024 Assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir have brought about a significant shift in the region’s political landscape with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) making noteworthy electoral gains.
Despite being historically viewed as anti-Kashmir and anti-Muslim, the BJP’s vote share in Kashmir has surged from less than 2% in the 2008 elections to nearly 8% in 2024. This rise, though modest, signals the party’s growing influence in a region that has long been dominated by regional political outfits.
However, while the BJP managed to expand its presence, its perceived allies – Apni Party, People’s Conference and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) faced near-total decimation. The elections have also revealed the inefficacy of key individuals who were granted power and positions but failed to consolidate votes on the ground.
There is a need to examine the evolving electoral dynamics in Kashmir, with a critical analysis of main categories of political actors in the region and how each fared in the just concluded elections.
BJP’s Vote Share: An Incremental Gain in Challenging Terrain
The BJP’s performance in the 2024 elections is undeniably one of the key highlights. According to data from the Election Commission of India, the party polled an average of nearly 8% of the votes across 19 of the 47 constituencies in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, where it fielded candidates. This is a marked increase from the 2% average vote share it recorded in the 2008 Assembly elections. Notably, the BJP gained significant support in constituencies such as Gurez, Karnah, Lal Chowk, and Bijbehara.
BJP Strength In Some Areas
In the Gurez constituency, Fakir Muhammad Khan of the BJP emerged as a strong contender, securing 7,246 votes, falling short of victory by only 1,000 votes. In Lal Chowk, Eijaz Hussain managed to poll 3,281 votes while Sofi Yusuf of the BJP garnered 3,716 votes in Bijbehara. These figures suggest that the BJP has managed to inch its way into the electoral consciousness of some sections of the Kashmiri electorate, especially in pockets where younger, untainted candidates have contested.
While this rise may not translate into immediate electoral dominance, it reflects a deeper trend of normalization of the BJP within the Valley’s political landscape. The question, however, remains: Can the BJP build on this momentum, or will this surge be a flash in the pan?
Despite being historically viewed as anti-Kashmir and anti-Muslim, the BJP’s vote share in Kashmir has surged from less than 2% in the 2008 elections to nearly 8% in 2024
The Youth Factor
A Shift in Political Preferences
One of the most notable features of this election was the performance of young, untainted candidates who carried no political baggage. These candidates were able to consolidate votes in their respective constituencies. For example, in Rajpora Pulwama, independent candidate Arshad Latif Bhat secured 5,000 votes, while in Eidgah Srinagar, Ghulam Nabi Bhat garnered 6,000 votes, finishing as the runner-up by a margin of just 1,680 votes.
As per PTI report, A total of 68.53 per cent candidates including almost all of the PDP and BSP, in 43 assembly segments of Jammu region, forfeited their security deposits. These candidates could not secure a minimum of one-sixth of total valid votes and hence lost their security deposits.
This shift in voter preference, particularly among the youth, signals a broader trend of political realignment in Kashmir. The younger generation, which has grown up in the post-insurgency era, appears to be more pragmatic and less bound by the traditional ideologies that have shaped the region’s politics for decades. They are more willing to engage with like-minded parties or individuals to get rid of the administrative deficit in the valley.
THE PLAY OF KASHMIR’S POLITICAL ‘CATEGORIES’
Category 1: Raj Bhawan-backed Political Proxies
One of the most interesting dynamics in this election was the performance of individuals and parties that were perceived to be backed by the Raj Bhawan and Central establishment. After the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, political outfits such as the Apni Party, along with individuals like Junaid Mattu, Tauseef Raina, Safina Baig, Sheikh Imran, and Sheikh Ishfaq Jabbar, were heavily promoted and supported by the Lieutenant Governor. These candidates were expected to make significant inroads in the Valley’s political arena, benefiting from both logistical and administrative backing. However, the election results paint a starkly different picture.
Despite the resources and support provided by the Lieutenant Governor’s administration, these political actors faced an overwhelming rejection from the electorate. Junaid Mattu, the former Mayor of Srinagar and a prominent figure, lost his seat to Tanvir Sadiq of National Conference. Safina Baig, once seen as a promising candidate lost her deposit and her Wagoora-Kreeri seat was won by Irfan Hafeez Lone of Congress. In many cases, these candidates not only lost but also forfeited their security deposits, highlighting the extent of voter disillusionment with those perceived to be propped up by external forces.
The failure of these candidates signals a critical shift in the electorate’s sentiment: voters are no longer willing to support individuals or parties seen as puppets of the central government. The era of covert political deals and top-down politics seems to be ending, as the Kashmiri people seek more authentic and transparent political representation.
Category 2: Collapse of Secret Alliances and Regional Parties
The second category of political actors includes those who were believed to have formed secret alliances with the BJP, or those who had once aligned themselves with New Delhi in hopes of political gain. The People’s Conference, led by Sajad Lone, and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mehbooba Mufti, are prime examples. These parties, which had either formed or tacitly supported alliances with the BJP in the past, faced electoral annihilation in the 2024 elections.
The People’s Conference, once seen as a rising force in the post-370 political landscape was decisively rejected by the electorate. Sajad Lone’s attempts to position his party as a moderate alternative to the National Conference failed to resonate with voters.
Similarly, the PDP, which had previously entered into a coalition government with the BJP in 2014, has been unable to recover from the fallout of that alliance. Mehbooba Mufti’s party was almost completely wiped out, signaling that voters have not forgiven the PDP for its perceived role in allowing the BJP to gain a foothold in the region.
The failure of these parties underscores a broader trend: the electorate in Kashmir is tired of secret political pacts and under-the-table alliances. The Kashmiri people, it appears, want a break from the politics of deception that has characterized much of the region’s history. The message from this election is clear: candidates and parties must stand on their own merits, not on covert deals or external support.
Category 3: Failure of Propped-up Power Holders
The third category involves individuals who were granted positions of power by the BJP or the Raj Bhawan but have shown little to no electoral presence or influence. Figures like Dr. Hina Bhat and Dr. Darakhshan Andrabi exemplify this category. These individuals, despite holding portfolios and enjoying the privileges of their positions, failed to translate their power into electoral success.
Dr. Hina Bhat, once seen as a future face of the BJP in Kashmir has been almost entirely absent from the political ground in recent years. Her portfolio has provided her with protocol and security, but it has not helped her build a grassroots base. Similarly, Dr. Darakshan Andrabi, who has a history of shifting loyalties was unable to make any impact in the elections. Both figures were conspicuously absent from the political narrative during the elections and their failure to support the BJP’s ground-level politics speaks volumes about their inefficacy.
Politics, at its core, is about gaining the trust and faith of the people. Figures like Dr. Bhat and Dr. Darakshan Andrabi, while benefiting from their positions, have failed to engage with the electorate meaningfully. Their lack of ground-level support has done little to advance the BJP’s cause in the Valley, highlighting the limitations of propping up individuals without ensuring they are embedded within the local political fabric.
Kashmir’s New Political Realities
The 2024 Assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir have revealed a complex and evolving political landscape. The BJP’s incremental rise in vote share, though modest, signals that the party is slowly gaining acceptance in certain sections of the Valley’s electorate. However, the overwhelming rejection of its perceived allies along with the failure of Raj Bhawan-backed candidates and propped-up figures, indicates that the people of Kashmir are demanding more transparent and authentic political representation.
The politics of secret deals, external backing and political puppetry is being rejected by the Kashmiri electorate.
As the dust settles on these elections, one thing is clear: the politics of secret deals, external backing and political puppetry is being rejected by the Kashmiri electorate. The region is moving toward a new political reality in which parties and candidates must earn the people’s trust through direct engagement, rather than relying on covert alliances or administrative support.
